Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter Odds
In the lone heavyweight fight of UFC 284, New Zealand's Justin Tafa faces his most experienced opponent yet in Parker Porter.
The bout is part of the ESPN+ pay-per-view main card.
Oddsmakers and bettors are split on the contest. Let's dig into it to see which side has value.
Tale of the Tape
| Tafa | Porter | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 13-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:12 | 10:19 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 264 lbs. | 265 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/13/1993 | 4/22/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.02 | 6.49 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.94 | 6.32 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 1.45 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 28% |
| TD Def | 100% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.5 |
I discussed Porter as my best bet on our UFC 284 episode of Action Network Podcast.
I project Porter as a slight favorite in what amounts to a coin-flip type of heavyweight matchup, and getting plus-money prefight is an easy investment.
Aside from pure power and early finishing upside, Porter possesses almost all the advantages in the fight. Most importantly, he has more striking volume, more minute-winning ability, better cardio and all of the grappling upside.
While Tafa has shown decent first-level takedown defense, he showed himself to be an absolute fish on his back regionally. And he may be one of the worst grapplers on the UFC roster.
Moreover, once you tire out Tafa, his power tends to drop dramatically, unlike some heavyweights who carry their power through fatigue. As a result, Porter may be out of danger here if he can survive the first few minutes and try to tire out Tafa as quickly as possible.
Porter should look to pursue takedowns early or at least press Tafa on the cage, hold him there, and wear down his energy.
Even if he gets knocked down but recovers and loses the first round, the more attritional work Porter can put in, the better. He should win this matchup’s second and third rounds at drastically increasing percentages.
👊 @Parker_Porter turning up the pace! #UFCVegas34pic.twitter.com/EmBpRn4eZ1
— UFC (@ufc) August 22, 2021
Unless Tafa scores multiple knockdowns, it’s difficult to envision Porter losing a decision; the volume discrepancy should be massive over the final 10 minutes.
And if Porter gets a takedown in any round, that could be enough to secure the round in his favor – if not finish the fight.
Tafa vs. Porter Pick
I projected Porter as a -120 favorite and would bet his moneyline up to -111 prefight. Additionally, add more on his side live after Round 1.
Although I show substantial value on Porter’s decision prop (projected +268, listed +360 at FanDuel), I will pass on that bet.
There’s a distinct possibility that Tafa can’t recover after a takedown – at any point – and gets finished. Or he is overwhelmed for an attritional-based stoppage in the third round.
Rather than the decision prop, I’d prefer to bet Porter in a same game parlay at DraftKings with the Over 0.5 Rounds (+130 SGP) or Over 1.5 Rounds (+220 SGP) if you’re looking for a boosted payout.
However, Porter's moneyline is still very actionable at current levels, and it's certainly my preferred bet on the card.
The Picks: Parker Porter (+110, 0.75u at DraftKings) | Parker Porter Live after Round 1
