UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues: Heavy Favorite Worth the Price? (Saturday, February 11)

UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues: Heavy Favorite Worth the Price? (Saturday, February 11) article feature image
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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC flyweight Kleydson Rodrigues of Brazil

  • Saturday's UFC 284 prelims include a bout of Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues.
  • Rodrigues is a big favorite in the flyweight bout, which is expected to maintain a swift pace.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo explains why he's betting on the fight to end early.

Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues Odds

Ross Odds
+275
Rodrigues Odds
-350
Over/Under
2.5 (-125 / -105)
Venue
RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
Time
8:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN and ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

Two flyweights in search of their first UFC win clash on the UFC 284 preliminary card with Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues.

Rodrigues is a heavy favorite in this matchup against a fellow Contender Series alum.

But is he the right side? Let's look at the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

RossRodrigues
Record13-67-2
Avg. Fight Time9:2215:00
Height5'6"5'5"
Weight (pounds)125 lbs.125 lbs.
Reach (inches)66"67"
StanceSwitchOrthodox
Date of birth5/12/198910/22/1995
Sig Strikes Per Min7.155.73
SS Accuracy38%61%
SS Absorbed Per Min8.433.07
SS Defense54%48%
Take Down Avg0.001.00
TD Acc0%25%
TD Def100%66%
Submission Avg0.01.0

I’m surprised the market isn’t more optimistic about this flyweight tilt ending inside the distance.

I set the line at 58% (-136), and the market is between -140 and -150. Still, Ross has extremely questionable durability – getting knocked down five times in his past three fights alone – but he’s also willing to die on his sword, biting down on the mouthpiece and forcing exchanges in the pocket.

Rodrigues is an imposing physical force who dropped his UFC debut as a -400 favorite but is getting similar respect for his sophomore effort.

I’m still uncertain where I fall on Rodrigues' ceiling as a fighter. He’s relatively inexperienced, but 27 isn’t necessarily young for flyweight.

And these dramatic moneyline prices may not be justifiable in the long run.


Ross vs. Rodrigues Pick

While I don’t necessarily project actionable value on this fight from any perspective, the pace should be incredibly hot.

I’m willing to bet on Rodrigues inside the distance (projected +118, listed +125 at BetMGM) at a small edge for small stakes.

And I would consider betting the fight to end inside the distance (projected -136, listed -135 at BetMGM) as an alternative.

The Pick: Kleydson Rodrigues wins Inside the Distance (+125, 0.25u at BetMGM)

About the Author
Sean is a Staff Writer at The Action Network and a lawyer in the state of New York. He primarily covers baseball, synthesizing advanced metrics with traditional scouting techniques, and believes that Bartolo Colón's home run was the single greatest athletic achievement of our time.

Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.

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