UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas: A Lean and a Live Play (Saturday, February 11)

UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas: A Lean and a Live Play (Saturday, February 11) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Modestas Bukauskas of Lithuania

  • Saturday's UFC 284 preliminary card concludes with Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas.
  • The light heavyweight bout features a big local favorite in Pedro.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo details why bettors may want to wait and live bet this fight.

Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas Odds

Pedro Odds
-250
Bukauskas Odds
+200
Over/Under
1.5 (-140 / +110)
Venue
RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
Time
9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN and ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

The UFC 284 preliminary card concludes with a light heavyweight bout between Tyson Pedro and Modestas Bukauskas.

Pedro, who's fighting at home, is a heavy favorite in this ESPN-televised fight.

Let's break down the matchup and look at Pedro vs. Bukauskas betting angles.

Tale of the Tape

PedroBukauskas
Record9-313-5
Avg. Fight Time5:517:23
Height6'3"6'3"
Weight (pounds)205 lbs.205 lbs.
Reach (inches)79"78"
StanceOrthodoxSwitch
Date of birth9/17/19912/10/1994
Sig Strikes Per Min2.953.59
SS Accuracy64%37%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.354.54
SS Defense51%52%
Take Down Avg0.640.00
TD Acc25%0%
TD Def52%100%
Submission Avg1.30.0

After blowing out his leg on an oblique kick from Khalil Rountree in September 2021, Bukauskaus returned to the MMA scene in November and scored a pair of wins in Cage Warriors – including one for the light-heavyweight title – to earn his way back to the UFC.

He’ll face the hyped but relatively unchallenged Pedro – on short notice – to begin his second UFC stint. And will hope to fare better than Pedro’s last two opponents, who lost via first-round finish after Pedro returned from a lengthy layoff of his own.

Still, those were layup victories (as a -900 and -1000 favorite, respectively) against bottom-of-the-barrel talent. Bukauskaus, at least, represents a step up in competition and someone who can push Pedro in an extended fight.

Last time we were in Perth @Tyson_Pedro_ pulled off this absolutely incredible kimura submission 😮😮😮

He's back this weekend at #UFC284! pic.twitter.com/DbRa4qZbDO

— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) February 7, 2023

Pedro likely has a grappling advantage here, but if he cannot consolidate an early finish or generate takedowns in multiple rounds, Bukauskas may be able to turn the momentum and generate a finishing sequence in the second or third round.


Pedro vs. Bukauskas Pick

Pedro has fallen apart in extended fights in the past – and never won a bout outside of Round 1.

In contrast, Bukauskas has proven championship-level cardio (two wins in the fourth round of title fights in Cage Warriors), which may be his best attribute.

I don’t see value in the moneyline, total or any winning method props for this matchup.

However, I would lean toward the Over 1.5 Rounds pre-fight and look to live bet Bukauskas after Round 1.

The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas Live after Round 1

About the Author
Sean is a Staff Writer at The Action Network and a lawyer in the state of New York. He primarily covers baseball, synthesizing advanced metrics with traditional scouting techniques, and believes that Bartolo Colón's home run was the single greatest athletic achievement of our time.

Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.

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