Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett Odds
The UFC 284 co-main event on Saturday features an interim title fight between featherweights Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett.
Despite Alexander Volkanovski, the reigning featherweight champion and pound-for-pound king being alive and thriving on the very same card, the UFC saw fit to continue its tedious trend of keeping interim titles in circulation.
The promotion wasn't exactly meritocratic with their selections, either.
Rodriguez, who is coming off of an injury-TKO win over Brian Ortega last year, was previously thrashed by Max Holloway and has secured only three wins total in the last half-decade.
Emmett, on the other hand, is coming off of a five-fight winning streak, though there are decent arguments that he could've lost his last three encounters (with the fight against Shane Burgos probably being a draw).
Nevertheless, these are still talented and exciting fighters who will, at the very least, stand and deliver in Saturday's UFC 284 co-main event (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ pay-per-view).
Tale of the Tape
| Rodriguez | Emmett | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-3 | 18-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:30 | 13:10 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/6/1992 | 3/4/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.67 | 4.28 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.12 | 4.29 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.83 | 1.04 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 40% |
| TD Def | 62% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Even though each fighter possesses clear strengths, their styles also come with a ton of volatility in tow.
Rodriguez, who comes from a taekwondo base, is a dynamic, stance-switching kicker who has made measurable efforts to further flush out his offense at boxing range. Training his wrestling with Izzy Martinez, Rodriguez is fueled with fundamentals that help keep him afloat both on defense and inside of scrambles.
Although I'm still skeptical of Rodriguez's opportunistic attitude toward guard play and rolling leg locks, the Mexican fighter has been able to come out on the right side of proverbial dice rolls more often than not.
Still, Rodriguez will need to be mindful of throwing himself out of position opposite Emmett.
The former Menlo College rep may not lean on his wrestling as much as one might like, but Emmett is no slouch when it comes to securing grappling positions, and he is not beyond attempting to take a back if the opportunity presents itself.
On the feet, Emmett is a proven power puncher who wields hard hooks whether he's coming forward to striking off the counter.
Emmett is also good about mixing in shots to the body, which should serve him well when looking at Rodriguez's defenses (or lack thereof).
That said, Emmett, like Rodriguez, can be a bit too comfortable with fighting with his back near the fence, making cage positioning a quiet theme of the contest.
Rodriguez vs. Emmett Pick
Public money appears to be trickling in on the Mexican title hopeful, listing Rodriguez -180 and Emmett +155 as of this writing.
Whether we're talking about the favorable bounces that each man has been the recipient of – or both of their abilities to change the dynamic of the fight on a dime – it can be difficult to be confident on a moneyline side in this spot.
However, in spite of said trepidations, I still ended up with a fairly clear read and a bet I feel good about.
Even though no one should be shocked if Rodriguez's suspect footwork and defense allow Emmett to corral him along the cage for an emphatic knockout, I can't help but notice the American's availability to kicks (particularly to the legs and body) due to his style and stature.
For that reason, I ended up officially siding with Rodriguez to spark off a finish from a body kick by the second round, and I will probably sprinkle small on Rodriguez's knockout prop if I can find it north of +300.
That said, I believe that the best bet for this fight is for it not to go the distance – which is currently at plus money but fleeting.
Not only are both men big knockout threats early, but they've also recorded comeback KOs with just seconds remaining in either three- or five-round affairs.
The Pick: Rodriguez vs. Emmett doesn't go the distance (+110 via Caesars) | Bet to -110
