Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett Odds
One of the biggest prospects in MMA history looks to make it 4-0 in his young MMA career when Bo Nickal fights Jamie Pickett at UFC 285.
The middleweight bout is part of the pay-per-view main card, and standout wrestler Nickal is again an astronomical favorite.
Does underdog Pickett stand a chance? Let's look at the matchup.
Tale of the Tape
| Nickal | Pickett | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 13-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 0:57 | 9:36 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 80" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/14/1996 | 8/29/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.68 | 3.25 |
| SS Accuracy | 70% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.00 | 4.36 |
| SS Defense | 100% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 23.68 | 1.39 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 36% |
| TD Def | 0% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 23.7 | 0.2 |
Most assume the question is how and when – not if – Nickal will win his UFC debut on Saturday. The three-time Division I champion wrestler has plowed through three professional opponents, winning each of his fights in less than 62 seconds.
Based purely on his dominant grappling, Nickal could potentially beat current middleweight champion Alex Pereira or former champion Israel Adesanya immediately if given the opportunity.
Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, however. We still don't know what Nickal's cardio or striking looks like in an extended fight. He is a dominant wrestler and a potent finisher on the mat, but whether he can maintain that finishing ability against UFC-level fighters is yet to be determined.
And if his UFC opponents can survive that grappling onslaught for at least a round and return to their feet for the second frame, will Nickal start to wilt at all? These are questions still yet to be answered for a fighter who is as high as -2000 (95.4% implied), maybe the most favored debutant in UFC history.
From a stylistic perspective, Pickett doesn't have much to offer. He defeats opponents by relying on the clinch, cage push and clock-killing rather than proactively damaging his opponents. His best path to victory is to attempt to survive early, hope Nickal tires and he eventually takes over, or high-roll a flash knockout somewhere.
Nickal vs. Pickett Pick
I prefer Pickett by KO/TKO (projected +2184, listed +2300 at FanDuel) to the underdog moneyline. And I don't see an actionable way to bet on the favorite.
However, while the Under 1.5 Rounds (-320 at FanDuel) is incredibly chalky, I don't mind it as a parlay piece to have some action on the fight. I set the odds to end inside the distance closer to -800 and would parlay the Under 1.5 to -350.
While this is a mismatch, Nickal may want to show off his striking and search for the highlight-reel knockout on the PPV opener. In the same respect, he intends to climb the middleweight ladder quickly, and showcasing his dominance is the only path to the title.
The Pick: Parlay (+488, 0.1u at FanDuel): Under 1.5 Rounds (-320) & Shevchenko/Grasso Over 3.5 Rounds (+100) & Gane/Jones Under 4.5 Rounds (+124
