Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Odds
Two finishers clash on the UFC 285 preliminary card with Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault.
The middleweights have combined for 19 stoppages in 23 career victories, but both are looking to rebound from recent defeats.
Can we expect another one on Saturday night in the UFC 285 prelims? Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Marquez | Barriault | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-3 | 14-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:07 | 11:03 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/8/1990 | 2/18/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.18 | 5.35 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.84 | 4.83 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.30 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 25% |
| TD Def | 53% | 61% |
| Submission Avg | 3.0 | 0.1 |
While I show value on the over or goes distance props in this matchup (projected +130, listed +168 at FanDuel), this could be a high-paced affair – and potential Fight of the Night contender – between two middleweights who are flawed defensively.
Coming off multiple injuries and a three-year layoff, Marquez took our money in the third round of his fight against Maki Pitolo, securing a submission with under a minute remaining after losing the first two rounds. Following a win over Sam Alvey, Marquez was wobbled multiple times and eventually finished by Gregory Rodrigues last June.
I never love when a fighter comes back in less than a year from a knockout of that caliber, but Barrialut should be closer to Marquez's level of athleticism than the dynamic "Robocop."
Barriault pours volume on his opponents, averaging nearly 12 strike attempts per minute, but he takes nearly one strike for each that he gives (+0.52 significant strike margin). Marquez is a bit more calculated – and loads up a touch more on each of his punches – but he is no more efficient than his opponent (+0.34 strike margin).
Typically, Barriault struggles against grapplers, and while Marquez has an excellent front choke series, he has never completed a takedown in his UFC career.
Marquez vs. Barriault Pick
In addition to the over, or goes the distance prop, I also show value on Barriault's moneyline (projected -166, listed -150). We can combine those opinions into an SGP at DraftKings with Barriault and Over 0.5 Rounds (-125) or Over 1.5 Rounds (+140).
He's the likelier minute winner on volume, and I view the finishing upside as relatively even for either fighter.
I'm inclined to lay the juice, play the over half a round, and take a 25-cent discount. Barriault has two career wins inside the first 2.5 minutes (and a win over Jordan Wright at 2:36 of the first round). He is not a one-punch knockout artist – but an attritional finisher – and Marquez has never gone away quickly in his career.
If you're interested in juicier prices, the fight goes the distance prop (+168 at FanDuel), and Barriault by decision (projected +167, listed +285 at BetRivers) offer a significant edge relative to listed odds.
I will bet the Over 0.5 Rounds SGP, sprinkle Barriault by Decision, and look to bet him live after Round 1 if he happens to fall behind.
The Picks:
- Marc-Andre Barriault Wins by Decision (+270, 0.1u at Caesars)
- SGP: Barriault & Over 1.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u at DraftKings)
- Marc-Andre Barriault Live after Round 1
