UFC 285 Odds & Prediction for Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner: Bet This Underdog?

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner Odds

A late-notice clash of top-10 lightweights is slated for the UFC 285 pay-per-view main card on Saturday with Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner.

No. 10 Turner was originally slated to fight Dan Hooker, but No. 7-ranked Gamrot recently stepped in as a replacement for the injured Hooker.

Which title hopeful has the edge in this featured UFC 285 fight?

Tale of the Tape

This is an intriguing matchup of two lightweights with vastly different styles and body types. To call this "grappler vs. striker" would be doing a disservice to both men, but each has a clear edge depending on where this fight takes place.

Gamrot is an elite wrestler with high-level grappling experience as an ADCC competitor.  He has solid submissions but really shines in frenetic wrestling exchanges.

His 31% takedown accuracy belies his true ability, as he frequently chain-wrestles from one attempt to another before finally dragging his opponent to the mat.

Outside of his fight with Arman Tsarukyan, he's managed to land a takedown in every round of UFC competition. That includes his fight with Beneil Dariush, an excellent grappler in his own right

Gamrot's striking is solid, but nothing exceptional. He has fast hands, is a plus-athlete, and has reasonable power. Dariush got the better of the striking exchanges against him, though, including a third-round knockdown that sealed the victory over Benny.

That points to some defensive holes in his game. He's on the smaller side for the division and finds himself getting caught as he tries to close the range to set up his wrestling. That could be an issue against the massive Turner.

Another potential flaw is his reliance on the "tree top" finish from his single-leg entries. He'll have a hard time hoisting the 6-foot-3 Turner's leg high enough to turn those into a takedown. With that said, he has plenty of other routes toward bringing Turner to the mat.

Turner is an exciting young prospect in the lightweight division. After a rocky 2-2 start to his UFC career, he's since won five in a row, all within the first two rounds. Even his losses were somewhat excusable – particularly when he went to welterweight to fight Vicente Luque on short notice.

Turner's best attribute is his striking, with which he uses his reach advantage adeptly to pick apart opponents. He pushes a high pace with his strikes with a rare mix of volume and power.

He's no slouch as a grappler either. He rarely initiates grappling exchanges, but he frequently finds himself getting the better of them. He's likely to lose the positional battles to Gamrot but opportunistically look for submission openings when they present themselves.

Gamrot has never been submitted in MMA, but Turner could at least threaten with them enough to create openings. His length is a significant challenge to overcome even in the grappling department. Turner's long limbs allow him to threaten from positions where Gamrot might feel more comfortable than he should.

Turner's takedown defense is also well above average, but he's yet to fight a grappler of Gamrot's caliber. When he's been caught in the past, it's generally due to rushing in with strikes and leaving openings (his fight with Jamie Mullarkey being a perfect example) rather than getting outwrestled.

Gamrot vs. Turner Pick

This fight came together about two weeks ago, with Turner originally slated to fight Dan Hooker. In that timeframe, Turner has moved from about +145 to as high as +180 on the moneyline.

The more experienced and tested Gamrot is certainly the "A" side here, and I would've been more than happy to bet his moneyline at the -170 odds he opened with. However, this line has swung too far back in the other direction.

Gamrot is slightly undersized for the division as a former featherweight, and Turner is the tallest lightweight on the roster. He's a very difficult puzzle to solve stylistically, between his height and southpaw frame.

That makes him tough to fight on short notice, as he's an opponent who requires specific preparation – especially in the full-sized UFC pay-per-view cage, where Turner's length is a further advantage. If given a full camp, Gamrot would deserve to be a significant favorite, but that's not the case here.

For that reason, I'll be taking a stab at Turner's moneyline. While the +180s currently available are fine, this is an opportunity to get greedy. Look for this line to continue to move a bit toward Gamrot and hopefully settle with Turner at +200 or so by Saturday.

The Pick: Jalin Turner, best available odds on Saturday