For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 285 parlay or two to sweat.
What’s a UFC pay-per-view without adding a couple of parlays to your betting card?
I once again will be focusing on fights in which the judges won’t be necessary. Let’s dive into three spots I expect to cash on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena.
As a reminder, the UFC 285 prelims kick off at 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+) before moving to ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card then streams via ESPN+ PPV beginning at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC 285 Parlay
Leg 1: Ian Garry by KO/TKO (-135)
The hype train behind Ian Garry will keep rolling as he takes on another opponent tailor-made for his strengths. Song Kenan, who has not entered the octagon in more than two years, is simply not the caliber of fighter to expose the weaknesses in Garry’s game. Kenan does not have the durability to withstand the volume and pace of Garry in a fight that will play out entirely on the feet. Play Garry by KO/TKO as the first piece of your parlay at -135.
Leg 2: Dricus du Plessis by KO/TKO (+125)
I am not rushing to fade Derek Brunson on the moneyline in a fight where he will likely have grappling success in spots. However, Dricus du Plessis has the cardio and explosiveness to maintain his ability to land the fight-ending shot even if he has to navigate his way back to his feet. Getting plus money (+125) on the favorite’s clearest path to victory feels like a tremendous value. Whenever this fight is being played out at range, any shot may be the one to add to Brunson’s six career knockout losses.
Leg 3: Valentina Shevchenko by KO/TKO or Submission (-145)
Champ Valentina Shevchenko will have the clear grappling advantage over Alexa Grasso in the co-main event at UFC 285. Grasso’s 64% career takedown defense leads me to believe the champion will opt to attack the challenger’s possible weakness, rather than have the fight play out as a kickboxing bout. Shevchenko is well-rounded enough to get a finish anywhere the fight goes, but the likelihood the fight ends inside the distance increases whenever she can get the fight to the mat. Play a "double chance" KO/TKO or submission as the means by which the champ retains her title at a -145 price tag.
UFC 285 all-stoppages parlay odds: +571 (BetMGM)
UFC 285 Same Game Parlay
The same-game parlay option at DraftKings offers a great way to extract maximum value from correlated fight results. This week I will be putting my faith in the clear skill advantage Cody Garbrandt possesses over his opponent, Trevin Jones.
It goes without saying Garbrandt has major durability issues. However, I expect this fight to be very low-volume, as Garbrandt will use his footwork and speed to stay out of harm’s way. Jones lands only 2.33 significant strikes per minute and if he does overcommit on what he thinks is a shot that can end the fight, Garbrandt will look to his wrestling to put Jones on his back.
Jones has defended the takedown at only a 66% rate in his career, and while Garbrandt has not used his wrestling advantage often in his fights, he must know it is a great way to not only win rounds, but to keep his level of consciousness.
Garbrandt went five rounds with Rob Font just two fights ago and was able to secure three takedowns in the first two rounds. I expect him to take the path of least resistance to get Jones on the canvas at least once in this fight. If Jones is put on his back, he can easily be controlled, and minutes may go by before he can get back to where he wants the fight to play out.
The skill advantage, takedowns and overall lack of output in this fight will lead to a Garbrandt victory. His game plan should be entirely geared toward avoiding damage and getting his hand raised by any means necessary. Garbrandt will avoid a brawl, and this somewhat contrarian angle presents a great betting opportunity.
- Garbrandt moneyline 3way (-175)
- Total rounds over 1.5 (-120)
- Garbrandt total takedowns 1+ (+220)
