For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 286 parlay to sweat.
The majority of bouts at Saturday's ESPN+ pay-per-view event, which kicks off at 12:30 p.m. ET (9:30 a.m. PT), are likely to end up in the judges' hands. But as always, I will seek out the most violent of situations and capitalize on the value offered.
The parlay is three parts with a hefty payout, so let’s get to it.
UFC 286 Parlay
Leg 1: Ludovit Klein by KO/TKO (+160)
Ludovit Klein is coming off an impressive victory over Mason Jones, and I believe his opponent this Saturday is a step down in competition. Jai Herbert, while possessing great length for the lightweight division, has historically used it only to fight at range and look for the knockout.
Herbert averages only 2.45 significant strikes landed per minute, is at a grappling disadvantage, and is the less durable fighter in this contest. I expect Klein’s power to win out and get the stoppage.
Leg 2: Jake Hadley by KO/TKO or submission (-165)
In another undercard bout, I will be backing the more durable fighter in Jake Hadley over Malcolm Gordon. Only one of Gordon’s five UFC fights has made it to the scorecards, and he has been knocked out four times in his MMA career.
Gordon’s 41% significant striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. While Hadley isn’t the most polished of strikers, his pressure and ability to mix in takedowns with his power strikes should pay dividends here leading to the finish.
Leg 3: Gunnar Nelson by submission (+105)
We have seen Gunnar Nelson in the UFC octagon only once over the last 3.5 years, but ring rust isn’t a concern as he will be able to dictate how this fight plays out.
Bryan Barberena’s 54% takedown defense is simply too large of an advantage for Nelson despite the latter's one-dimensional nature. I expect Nelson to eventually get this fight to the mat, control Barberena for a sustained period of time, and find ample submission opportunities along the way.
Pick: UFC 286 all-stoppages parlay odds (+756) |
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UFC 286 Same Game Parlay
Same game parlays are a great way to maximize value by correlating fight results, but it’s also an avenue to flip substantial favorites to plus-money by playing their most likely path to victory.
Roman Dolidze is currently on a four-fight tear and clearly one of the most dangerous fighters the middleweight division has to offer. Problem is, he defends takedowns at only 33% in his UFC career, and Marvin Vettori is going to exploit his glaring weakness.
Vettori’s tendency to grind on his opponents will start from the opening bell. It’s likely he will look to avoid the power shots of Dolidze by getting the fight to the map in Round 1 and tiring out his opponent.
Vettori has been extremely durable in his career, as well, and if he can implement his game plan, Dolidze’s cardio issues will be on full display. Vettori will go back to his wrestling in the later rounds, and if he does take more chances, it will be after the more dangerous Dolidze has been sapped of his explosiveness.
Vettori’s wins usually aren’t going to be the most exciting of bouts to watch, and that is the most likely path once again for the -280 favorite. Instead, let’s use his path to victory to flip his odds to a juicy +275 via this UFC 286 SGP:
- Marvin Vettori moneyline (3-way)
- Vettori 2+ total takedowns
- Vettori 1+ takedowns in Round 1
- Over 8.5 total minutes
