Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joe Pyfer Odds
Contender Series alum and rising prospect Joe Pyfer will meet seasoned vet Gerald Meerschaert on the UFC 287 preliminary card.
Pyfer is a sizable favorite, but the ever-crafty Meerschaert has pulled off multiple upsets during his lengthy MMA and UFC career.
Let's dig into this middleweight matchup.
Tale of the Tape
| Meerschaert | Pyfer | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 35-15 | 10-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:09 | 4:58 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/18/1987 | 9/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.11 | 3.49 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.45 | 2.55 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.17 | 2.01 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 100% |
| TD Def | 29% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 1.0 |
This is the exact type of role where Meerschaert typically thrives as an underdog gatekeeper trying to turn back a rising prospect.
He has defeated better opponents than Pyfer – as a more significant underdog than he will be on Saturday – and "GM3" is arguably the most formidable opponent that Pyfer has ever faced. And he also owns a two-inch reach advantage.
Still, Pyfer will likely hold a noticeable edge in striking speed. And Meerschaert tends to get wobbled early in each of his fights before eventually recovering, fighting through adversity, and putting his lesser opponents through hell.
Pyfer should ultimately win the striking and land more volume, but Meerschaert has some tools to trouble him on the feet.
Moreover, Meerschaert is reliable in wrestling in each of his fights. When his fights hit the ground, his opponents consistently underrate his ability to choke them out. He has the most submissions (nine) and second-most finishes (10) in UFC middleweight history.
The athleticism and speed differential should be noticeable early on. Still, as Meerschaert progresses into the fight, he may find a way – as he typically does – to frustrate and eventually damage his opponent.
Meerschaert vs. Pyfer Pick
I'll consider betting GM3 live after Round 1, especially if Pyfer goes for an early kill and blows his gas tank in the process.
Aside from betting on Pyfer to win via decision (projected +652, listed +700 at BetRivers) or Meerschaert to win via submission (projected +359, listed +360 at FanDuel), I don't see a way to bet on this fight from a pre-fight "value" perspective. And there's not enough meat on the bone for either prop – relative to my projected line – to pull the trigger.
Monitor the first round and Pyfer's cardio usage and consider a live entry on Meerschaert if Pyfer over-exerts himself early.
I'll also have a bunch of exposure to this fight in DFS since this is, by far, the likeliest fight to end inside the distance in the betting market (projected 82%).
The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert Live after Round 1
