Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds
The UFC 287 co-main event features a potential welterweight war with Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal.
Burns is making a relatively quick turnaround from a dominant victory over Neil Magny in January while Masvidal – for a multitude of reasons – has been out of action since March 2022.
But outside-of-the-cage musings aside, Masvidal appears to be at an undeniable crossroads in his career.
Aside from going 0-3 since 2020 and being in this game for the better part of 20 years, Masvidal himself has stated that he may call it quits if he's unable to beat Burns in Miami on Saturday.
That said, if Masvidal is able to add another upset to his resume, he stands to gain a title shot and more considering the Cuban's history with the current champion, Leon Edwards.
Tale of the Tape
| Burns | Masvidal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-5 | 35-16 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:16 | 13:32 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/20/1986 | 11/12/1984 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.42 | 4.11 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.173 | 3.06 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.03 | 1.44 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 59% |
| TD Def | 47% | 74% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Although this matchup is giving me striker vs. grappler vibes, both men are incredibly well-rounded talents.
Despite initially making his name in the same backyard brawling scene that Kimbo Slice came from, Masvidal has been shoring up his wrestling and grappling under the roof of American Top Team for well over 15 years now.
In fact, whether Masvidal was competing at lightweight or welterweight, the 20-year pro has always kept consistent standings in both divisions for his positive takedown defense percentages.
14 years ago today, Jorge Masvidal headlined Bellator’s first event and finished Nick Agallar in first round
(Jon Anik was on commentary) pic.twitter.com/6VHr3q9is8
— MMA Mania (@mmamania) April 3, 2023
Even when taken down, Masvidal demonstrates solid instincts in a scramble and is good about using the cage to stand.
However, considering whom Masvidal will be tangling with this weekend, he will likely be avoiding grappling scenarios at all costs.
Although Burns has made marked strides in his striking game under the care of Henri Hooft in South Florida, the multiple-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion has an edge on the floor against pretty much everyone he faces.
Gilbert Burns is exceptional at grappling pic.twitter.com/UddhZpT72b
— Bloody Elbow (@BloodyElbow) April 4, 2023
Knowing this, Burns has smartly worked on both his strength training and wrestling, adding a whole new physical dynamic to the equation. Should "Durinho" get to his grappling game early and often, then it could be a long night for Masvidal.
But if Burns elects to stand with Masvidal, he'll need to be hyper-aware of the potent jab and kick counters that lay in wait.
Burns vs. Masvidal Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the Brazilian fighter, listing Burns -450 and Masvidal +360 as of this writing.
Although the wide odds may make you raise an eyebrow at first glance, this seems like one of those spots where everyone is on the same page in regards to Masvidal having one foot out the door.
I'm usually one to defend Masvidal's grappling skills (as I was initially looking at decision props coming in), but a potential retirement angle in play – coupled with the Cuban's age – changes things for me.
We've seen aging fighters toward the end of the road tend to look for the door more times than not when finding themselves on the wrong end of damage or dominant performances, so no one should be surprised if Burns is able to find the stoppage he's looking for.
Burns, who had a decent run of hurting opposition on the feet, self-admittedly forgot about his submission game while focusing on other parts of MMA and has proclaimed on multiple occasions that he intends to submit everybody from here on out.
For that reason, I'll be playing Burns to win "inside the distance" while it's still at plus money.
Although I'm confident that Burns will be fishing for submissions off Masvidal's back exposure in scrambles, playing the Brazilian to win inside the distance provides extra coverage in case he's able to further crack "Gamebred's" chin in the process.
Despite picking Colby Covington to win, I really didn't like what I saw from Masvidal in their meeting last March and noticed that he started surrendering takedowns and positions by Round 3.
So, with that in mind, I also sprinkled small on Burns to win in Round 3 (which can be found at FanDuel at +1200).
But, for the official pick, we're going with Burns to win by finish. BetWay has that bet available at +110 odds, and many other sportsbooks have it for -110 or better, which is also playable.
The Pick: Gilbert Burns to win by KO, TKO, DQ or submission (+110 at BetWay) | Bet to -110
