Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Odds
Two welterweights in need of a signature win will get that chance on the UFC 287 main card when Kevin Holland takes on Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Holland is on a two-fight skid, and Ponzinibbio recently scored a come-from-behind win to avoid his own three-fight slide.
Both vets, though, have been taking on elite competition in recent years.
Who has the edge on Saturday? Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Holland | Ponzinibbio | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-9-0 | 30-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:11 | 10:52 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 81" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/5/1992 | 9/26/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.06 | 5.02 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.96 | 4.65 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.89 | 0.52 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 30% |
| TD Def | 50% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Holland is a relatively easy fighter to bet on as an underdog – but nearly impossible to trust as a favorite. He is unreliable to follow a gameplan that will maximize his win condition. Holland instead prefers to put on a show – and that's amplified on a PPV card in front of the fans.
Holland had opportunities to get top time in his last matchup against Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, but he chose to let up the kickboxer to appease the crowd.
It's easy to forget, but he even proclaimed that he was "retiring" from MMA before the Thompson fight – on the heels of his quick loss to Khamzat Chimaev. Holland is an odd duck.
However, he is a tremendous athlete with the freakiest length for the welterweight division. Holland had a size advantage over most of his opponents at middleweight, but at 170 pounds, the differential is even more pronounced. Holland is three inches taller with an eight-inch reach advantage over Ponzinibbio.
"The Argentine Dagger" was most recently outclassed by Alex Morono for two rounds before landing a third-round kill shot to turn the tables. Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times in that fight by an opponent with relatively limited power for the division, and he also sustained a ton of damage in recent wars with Michel Pereira, Geoff Neal and Miguel Baeza – after his knockout loss against Li Jingliang.
Holland's power has translated exceptionally well since moving down from 185, wobbling or knocking down three of his four welterweight opponents. He is also one of the most accurate distance strikers in UFC history – and given the reach advantage, he should be able to connect on Ponzinibbio with regularity.
Fighters can typically defeat Holland by mixing in takedowns, but his takedown defense has also translated better to the lighter-weight division, and Ponzinibbio isn't much of a wrestler. Holland is the superior grappler, and a club and sub – where he wobbles Ponzinibbio and snatches a neck for a choke – seems as live as a knockout.
Holland vs. Ponzinibbio Pick
Aside from his antics and showmanship, one concern I have on the Holland side is his hand. He broke multiple bones in his hands during the matchup with Thompson in December, and it seems like it hasn't had that much time to heal. Holland was winning the fight until Thompson broke his hand with a kick, and I'm worried that Holland could re-break the bones on Saturday.
As a result, while I see value in Holland's odds to win inside the distance (projected +118; listed +130 at FanDuel), I would rather bet the fight to end inside the distance (projected -163, listed -132 at FanDuel) at a more significant edge – and with the bonus of finish equity on both sides since Ponzniibbio is reliable to press on the gas when he falls behind.
Lastly, I see value in Holland to win by submission (projected +610, listed +800 at BetRivers). I'll consider including the submission prop, or Holland's inside-the-distance prop, to juice up a round-robin.
Pick: Fight ends inside the distance (-132, 0.5u) |
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