Rob Font vs. Adrian Yanez Odds
Expect fireworks when bantamweights Rob Font and Adrian Yanez clash in a featured UFC 287 main-card bout on Saturday.
Font is coming off a pair of grueling five-round losses to Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera, but he remains the No. 6-ranked contender in the UFC bantamweight division.
No. 12-ranked Yanez, meanwhile, looks to extend his lengthy nine-fight winning streak while taking on one of the division's toughest talents.
Tale of the Tape
| Font | Yanez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-6 | 16-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:31 | 6:39 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/25/1987 | 11/29/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.38 | 6.62 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.95 | 5.49 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.03 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 0% |
| TD Def | 55% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.0 |
The featured bout on Saturday's PPV is my favorite fight on the card. I prefer the bantamweight division (135 pounds) to any other weight class, and Yanez is arguably my favorite fighter on the UFC roster. He is ready to go to war with every opponent – and put on a show for the fans – but he also seems like one of the most down-to-earth and respectful fighters on the roster outside of the octagon.
Yanez has vaulted his way up the bantamweight rankings with five consecutive performance bonuses after earning his contract with a knockout on the Contender Series. Yanez has finished five of his past six opponents – and put on a Fight of the Night with Davey Grant in the other bout – and will look to ascend toward title contention with a win over Font.
Font is returning from a one-year layoff after main-event losses against Jose Aldo and Marlon "Chito" Vera, whom he out-landed 420-245 over 25 minutes. But he lost seven of the eight rounds unanimously since he was wobbled or knocked down on multiple occasions.
Font typically controls the action and the output against all of his opponents (+2.43 significant strike differential), but he doesn't carry a ton of power, and he isn't exceptionally durable, so that volume ultimately matters less than it would for other fighters.
Font should have a ton of success landing his jab in this fight. He has one of the best jabs in MMA, and he has a slight reach advantage over Yanez, who has struggled defensively with straight punches against the likes of Randy Costa.
Font also mixes his attacks well, and he'll probably look to level change at some point in the fight. Many suspect Font has the grappling upside, but I'm not certain. While Yanez has turned into one of the slickest boxers in the UFC, he comes from a jiu-jitsu base, and I suspect that his overall grappling game is underrated since we haven't seen him have to grapple in a professional MMA fight in several years.
It's possible that Font could outland Yanez on volume and then mix in takedowns with top time to secure a comfortable decision. Skill for skill, he is the best fighter whom Yanez has ever faced, and this is arguably a step down in competition relative to his recent opponents, as Yanez takes a step up in class.
Font vs. Yanez Pick
Yanez also tends to start slowly in his fights as he looks to make reads on his opponent in a similar manner as Petr Yan or Marlon Vera. That type of patient approach can prove extremely detrimental in a three-round fight. And as a result, I expect Font to win the first round at a high clip as Yanez settles in.
I projected Font closer to +140 in this matchup and view him as the value side on the moneyline (down to +150). However, I prefer his decision prop (projected +244, listed +285 at BetRivers) since I view Font as more of a point-fighter than a finisher. And I expect him to be favored in the live markets if this fight reaches a decision.
Unless Yanez can finish Font or wobble him multiple times, he should face an output discrepancy in this matchup, and it could be difficult for him to win the final two rounds – against such a decorated fighter – if he is already trailing following a slow start.
The Pick: Rob Font wins by decision (+285, 0.2u) at BetRivers
