For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 287 parlay bet or two to sweat.
UFC 287 takes place Saturday in Miami, and the 13-bout pay-per-view card offers an array of UFC 287 parlays to consider.
We've had two consecutive UFC PPVs now in which my "violence parlays" have missed the mark by only one fight.
Time to get on the board with a clean sweep and a nice payday! If you tail this play, though, don’t hesitate: It includes the very first fight on the prelims, which kick off at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.
UFC 287 Parlay
Leg 1: Jacqueline Amorim by submission +145
Jacqueline Amorim makes her UFC debut against veteran Sam Hughes, and her path to victory couldn’t be any clearer.
Amorim is a high-level grappler who will relentlessly pursue takedowns to get the fight to where she is most comfortable. Hughes defends takedowns at only a 47% clip in her six fights in the UFC, which is bad news against a submission grappler with the chops of Amorim.
This handicap is rather straightforward: I expect Amorim to find a submission at some point over the 15 minutes.
Leg 2: Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO +170
Ignacio Bahamondes steps in on short notice to take on Trey Ogden in another prelim bout. Once again, I like Bahamondes’ chances of keeping the fight where he thrives, and that is on the feet in kickboxing range.
Bahamondes is extremely long for the division, highly active, and he defends takedowns at a 95% clip. His 8.33 significant strikes landed per minute is an impressive mark, and while Ogden has never been finished by strikes, he has clearly never faced a fighter with the striking prowess of Bahamondes.
Leg 3: Kevin Holland by KO/TKO or submission +130
On to the main card, where it’s time to bet against the diminishing skills of Santiago Ponzinibbio. Kevin Holland has a huge advantage here in both reach and speed, and at this stage of their careers, he is also clearly the more durable fighter.
Ponzinibbio is likely to play right into the hands of his opponent, as he isn’t likely to push a grappling pace that Holland has historically struggled with. Stylistically, this is a very poor matchup for the aging Ponzinibbio.
I do not expect a submission finish in this fight, but it’s worth accounting for the club-and-sub possibility Holland possesses if he has Ponzinibbio rocked. So we'll bet the "double chance" option with Holland to win by KO or submission.
Pick: UFC 287 Violence Parlay (+1421) |
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UFC 287 Same Game Parlay
Same game parlays in the UFC can be a great way to extract the most value from a fight.
In the latest UFC 287 odds, Isreal Adesanya is around a -140 favorite, with DraftKings offering a "fight parlay" of Adesanya and over 3.5 rounds at +140. This particular SGP will net us around 65 cents of value.
Adesanya landed 86 significant strikes in his loss against middleweight champion Alex Periera in their previous UFC title bout. Over his last four fights, the ex-champ Adesanya has averaged 94.3 significant strikes landed, with all four starting the fifth round.
It has been reported, and it would undoubtedly be a logical approach for Adesanya to attempt to make this a true mixed martial arts fight rather than a kickboxing contest. He is -200 to land a takedown in this fight for a reason, and I expect him to steal at least one round by getting the fight to the mat at the most opportune time.
Both fighters have very good cardio, and both have been incredibly durable. This fight playing out rather similar to how their first matchup was proceeding shouldn’t surprise anyone. While I do not expect an early finish, if Adesanya implements some wrestling, it increases the likelihood we will see the championship rounds once again, as we have in seven of Adesanya’s nine title fights.
So, here's my UFC 287 same-game parlay:
- Israel Adesanya moneyline (3-way)
- Adesanya 1+ total takedowns
- Over 3.5 total rounds
- Adesanya 80+ total significant strikes
