UFC 288 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola: The Bet for a Likely Slobberknocker (Saturday, May 6)

Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola Odds

Unfortunately, we can't bet on which matchup wins Fight of the Night on Saturday at UFC 288. Otherwise, I'd take the lightweights Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola all the way to -1000.

These two lightweight sluggers are slotted in the crucial "featured prelim" spot for a reason: This one should be an old-fashioned slobberknocker before we head to the pay-per-view portion of UFC 288.

Read on to see what bet we actually can make on this one as we dig deep for a value in what should be an extremely volatile fight.

Tale of the Tape

Frevola and Dober bring similar pedal-to-the-floor styles to the table for their matchup. Both are reckless strikers who throw caution to the wind, throwing wild shots while being willing to take two to give one. They’re physically similar as well, with shorter, more muscular builds for the division.

With that said, Dober is the (slightly) more technical striker of the pair. He fights primarily as a southpaw and does a good job of winning the outside foot battle. Dober also keeps his hands up well, though his limited head movement leads to him still taking a fair amount of punishment.

He’s gotten away with it so far though, thanks to his iron chin. I was shocked to learn that Dober has never been knocked out despite getting hurt in seemingly all of his fights. Of course, “strong chin” isn’t a permanent condition, and all it takes is one big punch to change that reputation. I’d rather bet on fighters whose chins are a question mark – because we’ve never seen them tagged – but that’s definitely not an option in this contest.

Unlike Dober, Frevola carries his hands low, and he throws wild high-impact shots from the outside. My biggest criticism of his skills is his lack of setting up those shots: He throws spinning attacks and wild punches “naked” making them easy to avoid.

Part of that is a product of his reach deficit in most fights, a factor that isn’t at play here. Frevola officially has an inch of reach on Dober, but it’s not significant either way. He could certainly tag Dober with straight shots at range before launching his bigger strikes, but “could” and “will” aren’t synonyms.

Unlike Dober, Frevola’s chin is a fairly significant concern. He’s also been hurt at times in most of his fights, but twice in the UFC he’s been unable to recover. This fight could turn into a game of Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots, making durability a big factor.

I don’t expect there to be much grappling in this one, though Frevola has more takedowns by the numbers. Dober is more athletic, though, so it’s probably a wash all things considered. I also trust Dober’s cardio a bit more, but that’s unlikely to be a significant factor in this one, with an over/under of 1.5 rounds at close to even money.

Dober vs. Frevola Pick

My read on this one is fairly in line with the betting markets, which have Dober at slightly better than 2-to-1 depending on the sportsbook. That’s a bit more juice than I’m willing to pay here, given the power both men possess.

There will likely be some scary moments on both sides here, with it coming down to who’s able to take the bigger shots and keep firing back. I see this one ending in a knockout for somebody – with Dober’s chin making him the likelier culprit.

Another knockout for Dober would give him the UFC lightweight record of nine, and at -110, that’s a fair price to pay. However, we can make it a little juicier by throwing Dober by knockout into a same game parlay with the under 9.5 total minutes (effectively the first two rounds.)

That brings the final odds to +125, but I'd be comfortable adjusting this by a few minutes in either direction depending on your risk tolerance.

The Pick: SGP: Dober by knockout & under 9.5 minutes (+125 at DraftKings)