For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 289 parlay to sweat.
Saturday's ESPN+ PPV event takes place at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, and UFC champion Amanda Nunes meets challenger Irene Aldana in the main event.
I've got two UFC 289 parlays for Saturday – a traditional parlay and a same game parlay (SGP). One of them includes the Nunes vs. Aldana UFC 289 main event, and the other includes the lightweight co-main event of Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush, among other bouts.
Check out the UFC 289 parlay picks and analysis for both plays below.
UFC 289 Parlay
Leg 1: Blake Bilder by KO/TKO or submission (-105)
Blake Bilder is an intriguing unbeaten featherweight prospect who still may be improving despite his advanced age. Bilder more than doubles the output of significant strikes landed per minute in relation to his opponent Kyle Nelson, and he is much more aggressive submission seeker, as well. Nelson has been finished in three of his five UFC losses, with his only win coming against a fighter who had been KO’d in three consecutive fights and is no longer with the UFC. I expect Bilder to find the back of Nelson at some point in this scrap and secure a victory inside the distance.
Leg 2: Dan Ige by KO/TKO or submission (+125)
Nate Landwehr brings an exciting fighting style to the octagon, winning three straight fights with an abundance of heart and cardio. Dan Ige is no slouch in either of those categories – just with crisper boxing, more power and more durability. Landwehr’s aggressive nature and pressure have paid dividends during his previous three fights, but he also has the potential to leave openings for powerful strikers who can put him away. Ige has proven to have enough knockout power to shut the lights out on fighters outside the division’s elite. This is a Fight of the Night candidate for however long it lasts, but Ige is the play here.
Leg 3: Amanda Nunes by KO/TKO or submission (-140)
Simply put, Irene Aldana is not in the same class of fighter as Amanda Nunes, and we are getting quite the discount here on the women’s MMA GOAT. Nunes has both the clear power and grappling edge in Saturday’s main event. Even if Aldana can use distance and timing to frustrate the champion on the feet, there is still a real path to a finish on the mat for Nunes coming by ground and pound or submission.
The Pick: UFC 289 all-stoppages parlay (+653) |
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UFC 289 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays in MMA are a tremendous way to extract the most value from a specific fighter’s path to victory, and I see a great opportunity for us to capitalize in UFC 289’s co-main event.
Charles Oliveira is one of the most aggressive fighters the UFC has ever seen. Only one of his past 16 fights has lasted more than 11.5 minutes. His pressure can get him in trouble at times since his durability is a concern. His opponent, Beneil Dariush, has not only been on a terror, but he is fighting with the mindset of a man who won’t be satisfied until he is champion.
Dariush carries real power in his hands, and while he also possesses a world-class ground game, I believe his game plan will be to keep the fight standing. Knowing he can hurt former champ Oliveira on the feet, I expect Dariush to be the more confident striker, putting down his opponent with a strike at least once. Oliveira is a fighter who has been known to accept knockdowns in order to try to bait his opponent into a grappling exchange. There may be a time when Dariush briefly engages him on the mat to try to land some fight-ending shots before controlling position and inviting Oliveira back to his feet.
Dariush is a man on mission, and his ascension is still intact. I think he will avoid the submission attempts and eventually land the power shot to hurt the ex-champ to get the fight stoppage.
My UFC 289 SGP legs include:
- Beneil Dariush moneyline (3-way line)
- Dariush 1+ total knockdown
- Under 11.5 total minutes
UFC 289 SGP: +340 (DraftKings)
