Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn Odds
Another fight, another likely showcase for uber-prospect Bo Nickal, who meets late replacement Val Woodburn on Saturday's UFC 290 main card.
Nickal, the world-champion amateur wrestler, looks to make it 5-0 in MMA when he meets fellow middleweight Woodburn, who recently stepped in for Tresean Gore.
Can Woodburn cash in on this big opportunity, or will Nickal prove he's every bit a -3000 favorite?
Let's dig into Nickal vs Woodburn.
Tale of the Tape
| Nickal | Woodburn | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 7-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 1:36 | n/a |
| Height | 6'1" | n/a |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | n/a |
| Stance | Southpaw | n/a |
| Date of birth | 1/14/1996 | 8/10/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.67 | 0.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.21 | 0.00 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 12.50 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 0% |
| TD Def | 0% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 15.6 | 0.0 |
The top prospect in MMA, Nickal, has had his entire four-fight professional career last 321 seconds while Woodburn has won his last two bouts via decision.
Nickal still has a ton of question marks to answer as a fighter: how his striking looks in extended exchanges, how his cardio holds up over 15 to 25 minutes, and whether he can absorb a big shot from an opponent – or recover if he's wobbled.
That's a lot of unanswered questions for the most significant betting favorite in MMA history.
He is an elite athlete and figures to pose significant problems for a middleweight division light on grapplers, but most of Nickal's skillset and MMA attributes – aside from pure wrestling – are still to be determined.
He should be the more prominent man against the thick 5-foot-8 Woodburn, who has competed at light heavyweight.
However, I'm curious to see if Nickal tries to show off his striking in his fourth appearance under the promotional banner after three dominant submission victories.
Nickal vs. Woodburn Pick
I projected Nickal's submission line at -170 and his knockout prop at +337; as a result, I set his odds to win inside the distance at -265; and there's no winning method prop offering value.
Nickal is juiced to around -450 to win in Round 1, but you're better off playing the Under 1.5 Rounds (-450) and getting the extra 2.5 minutes for either fighter to finish if you're going that route.
You can get a very cheap price on the Over 0.5 rounds (-175) and hope that Nickal looks to gain cage time – and strike for a bit in this matchup – or at least face some grappling resistance. For context, the Crute vs. Menifield fight is -400 to end inside the distance but -600 to last Over 0.5 Rounds.
For round-robin purposes, you could do worse than Nickal to win in Round 2 (+750) or to win by TKO/KO (+280); and that's generally how I'd prefer to bet on this fight – for small stakes at plus money – or to use the Under 1.5 Rounds in a parlay.
The Pick: Pass
