Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker Odds
After their initial matchup got delayed, Jalin Turner and Dan Hooker will finally meet on Saturday's UFC 290 main card.
This scrap has fireworks written all over it, but it also has significance for the UFC's always-deep lightweight division.
Let's break it down.
Tale of the Tape
| Turner | Hooker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-6 | 22-12 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:46 | 9:44 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 158 lbs. | 155.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 5/18/1995 | 2/13/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.63 | 4.83 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.79 | 4.61 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.89 | 0.85 |
| TD Acc | 66% | 36% |
| TD Def | 74% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 1.6 | 0.3 |
Turner is on a mission to take out the entire Australian and New Zealand MMA scene, with finishes over Josh Culibao, Jamie Mullarkey and Brad Riddell already on his resume.
The large lightweight came in a couple of pounds over the 155-pound limit on Friday, and it's a wonder that Turner can fight in the weight class at all, standing 6-foot-3 with a 77-inch reach.
Both Turner and Hooker (6-foot-1, 75-inch reach) typically have a size advantage at 155 pounds, and both will see rare size parity in the other on Saturday.
That might be to Hooker's advantage; Turner has porous striking defense (43%), but smaller opponents can rarely capitalize and land head strikes because they have to do a lot of work to get inside the pocket against him.
Still, Turner is the younger man – both in age and fight years.
Hooker has been through several wars and has seemingly slowed to the point where he made a regrettable decision to move down to 145 pounds, where Arnold Allen quickly finished him.
The way Jalin Turner dispatched of a fighter like Brad Riddell in 45 seconds 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ahP0feBhFZ
— 𝕽𝖆𝖎𝖓𝖒𝖆𝖐𝖊𝖗❂ (@Sa_Gwang) July 4, 2022
Hooker's once-legendary chin has seemingly cracked, and it seems likely that Turner can put him on skates – or threaten a deep submission – at some point early in this fight.
"The Tarantula" is one of the most dangerous fighters at 155 pounds with a 100% finish rate – but he's a bit of a glass cannon too (three knockout losses), and cutting all that weight to make 155 takes a toll on his gas tank. He has a well-rounded game, and his only significant deficiency is takedown defense; that's something Hooker can exploit, particularly as both fighters tire.
If Turner doesn't finish the fight early, Hooker should be able to make this a close and competitive bar brawl, where he lands knees in the clinch and looks to drag Turner to the mat.
Overall, I expect a hectic pace, particularly early, and for both fighters to find openings to hurt their opponent, if not finish the fight.
Turner vs. Hooker Pick
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.
Still, I would lean toward Turner inside the distance (projected -156, listed -160) or by KO/TKO (projected +179, listed +195) in the winning method market. And I certainly prefer those props to his moneyline.
I do like the Unders in this matchup, however, setting the fight to end inside the distance 75% of the time (-302 implied odds). Bet the Under 1.5 Rounds to -110 or the Under 2.5 Rounds to -220.
The Picks: Under 1.5 Rounds (-106, 0.25u) at FanDuel | Under 2.5 Rounds (-220, 0.25u) at DraftKings
