For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 290 parlay or two to sweat.
For UFC 290, which takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, I've got two plays to consider.
The picks include a traditional parlay, as well as a same game parlay (SGP) for the pay-per-view event.
UFC 290 kicks off at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass) with additional prelims at 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN). The UFC 290 main card then streams via ESPN+ PPV.
Check them out below.
* Odds as of Saturday afternoon
UFC 290 Parlay
(Editor's note: On Friday officials announced the cancellation of Jack Della Maddalena vs. Josiah Harrell due to a medical issue for Harrell. The three-leg parlay below is now available as a two-leg parlay with +185 odds.)
The stars will be out in full force for the UFC’s marquee PPV card of the year, and with that International Fight Week finale comes the allure of violence.
I have identified three spots where I expect the judges’ scorecards will be rendered unnecessary; parlaying them together gives bettors a nice payout north of 4-to-1.
Leg 1: Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO (-125)
Vitor Petrino is an undefeated 8-0 prospect still on the upward trajectory of his career, and there are multiple paths to victory for him in this fight.
His opponent, Marcin Prachnio, is nine years the elder in this bout, and he started his UFC career with three consecutive losses all by KO. Petrino has the power and the grappling prowess to hunt for the finish regardless if the fight plays out on the feet or does hit the mat.
Petrino has never secured a submission in his MMA career, instead choosing to batter his opponents into a referee stoppage. That's a scenario that could definitely play out in this fight if Petrino looks to add to his impressive 4.45-takedowns-per-15-minute stat line.
Leg 2: Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in Round 1 (-130)
The analysis for this fight could begin and end with the fact Jack Della Maddalena has rattled off four straight first-round victories.
He is now being fed an opponent on short notice who really should not be in the UFC yet. A training camp in preparation for an elite grappler such as Sean Brady will pay dividends for Della Maddalena long-term to round out his skillset.
I have a hard time seeing Josiah Harrell being the one to drag JDM to the mat and have success holding him there. Della Maddalena is lined at most books above 72% to win this fight by KO/TKO, and I’ll be quite surprised if it doesn't happen in the opening frame.
Leg 3: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO or submission (-170)
Jalin Turner’s double-chance bet (KO or submission) to finish Dan Hooker on Saturday night holds the most value here because there are a few different ways he can get his hand raised inside the distance.
While Hooker is only 33, this will be his 21st UFC fight, and the damage he has taken throughout his career is undoubtedly starting to take its toll.
Turner, on the other hand, may just be hitting his stride, having outstruck his opponents in the significant-strike category in eight consecutive fights. Turner’s five victories in his last six fights have all come inside the distance as he displayed an array of fight-ending attacks.
Hooker is no slouch, but I believe Turner has developed into the more powerful striker at this stage and is clearly the more dangerous submission grappler. This should be a fun fight for however long it lasts, but Turner’s ascension should continue when the dust settles.
Pick: UFC 290 All-Violence Parlay (+185) |
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UFC 290 Same Game Parlay
What if I told you we could get a world-class fighter lined close to -400 at +255 instead in the very viable circumstance he simply dominates the fight? Well, that is what we have the opportunity to do at UFC 290 with a same game parlay on Robert Whittaker.
Whittaker is one of the most well-rounded fighters on the UFC roster today, and that includes the very real skill of fight IQ. He knows UFC 290 opponent Dricus du Plessis is a very dangerous opponent, especially in the early rounds.
Whittaker has attempted 33 takedowns in his past five bouts, and that should be something he implements at some point against du Plessis to try to drain the explosiveness of the rising South African star.
Whittaker doesn’t have to land a takedown to cash this parlay, but he will have to land more volume in the significant-strike department. Whittaker is a slick boxer with tremendous output. Only middleweight champion Isreal Adesanya has been able to best Whittaker in significant strikes over his last 15 UFC bouts.
There are levels to this game, and I don’t think du Plessis has completely proven to be as technical as he needs to be to beat somebody the caliber of Bobby Knuckles. With that said, the durability of both men should see this fight play out into the second round.
- Robert Whittaker moneyline (3-way line)
- Whittaker most takedowns
- Whittaker most significant strikes
- Over 5.5 total minutes
UFC 290 SGP: +255 at DraftKings
