UFC 291 Odds: Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for All 11 Fights (Saturday, July 29)

The UFC 291 odds board features a main event between lightweights Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje and an exciting light-heavyweight co-main event between former champions Jan Blachowicz and Alex Pereira.

I've made my UFC 291 picks and broken down all 11 fights from Saturday's Salt Lake City card below.

The UFC 291 preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ABC/ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. Then the five-fight main card will then commence on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.

On Friday, officials scrapped a planned main-card bout between Stephen Thompson and Michel Pereira after Pereira missed weight by three pounds. However, we still have lots of UFC 291 wagering options from the rest of the Utah fight card.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight on the UFC 291 card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 291 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's x bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Friday evening and via DraftKings.

UFC 291 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 291 Odds

Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Crowdsourced Projections: Miranda Maverick (66.3%)

Saturday's opener features a striker vs. grappler matchup in which the grappler, Miranda Maverick, is appropriately favored. But she's potentially overvalued.

I projected Priscila Cachoeira closer to a +200 underdog in this contest and would bet her moneyline at +215 or better. However, relative to the market, I see a potentially more significant edge on her finish prop (projected +356, listed +450).

Cachoeira has finished seven of her 12 career victories (58%). Still, I expect her to finish Saturday's bout closer to 65% of the time if she does win while the betting market puts her probability at 55%, below her career average.

Cachoeira is the taller (four inches) and larger fighter in this matchup, and she hits significantly harder. Maverick might be the better technical striker, but in smaller weight classes like women's flyweight, advantages in physicality and aggression go a long way.

Unless Maverick takes down Cachoeira, I expect her to lose minutes standing on power optics alone.

Cachoeira's takedown defense (46% career) is relatively nonexistent, and her defensive grappling has significant holes too. Still, she is extremely tough and never quits on herself, routinely fighting through adversity (or finding ways to cheat like eye-gouging an opponent) to stay in the fight.

Maverick doesn't impose significant ground and pound – or damage – on her opponents when in control positions. And she doesn't have a particularly slick submission game.

There's a possibility that Maverick loses a controversial split decision in which she lands takedowns in every round but doesn't do enough with them while Cachoeira swings rounds her way in her limited opportunities to strike.

As a result, while I typically bet Cachoeira inside the distance in nearly all of her fights, I'm inclined to split a wager between her moneyline and her finish prop; given the way fights are now scored, the judges should favor Cachoeira's damage over Maverick's control.

Bets

• Priscila Cachoeira (+240, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Priscilla Cachoeira wins Inside the Distance (+450, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic

Crowdsourced Projections: Matthew Semelsberger (65.2%)

Uros Medic is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Yohan Lainesse. And a short notice fight at elevation in Salt Lake City – for a competitor with already suspect cardio – seems like a less-than-ideal situation.

The betting market tends to agree; Matthew Semelsberger opened as a -140 favorite (58.3% implied) for this fight and has ballooned to -205 (67.2%) or higher as of writing.

Medic falls into the early-finisher archetype (no fights beyond the fight-minute mark) and comes from the low-level Alaska FC regional scene, but he is well-rounded and has moved to train with a solid camp at Kings MMA.

I expect him to be his typically dangerous self early on in this fight and to potentially have the speed and skill advantage over Semelsberger, who owns a four-inch reach advantage.

However, Semelsberger has proven himself to be highly durable – with a solid gas tank – and I would expect him to rally as Medic tires the longer the fight goes.

Both fighters carry power, but while Medic is the more talented martial artist, Semelsberger has the better hardware. And I expect that to prove the difference, particularly at elevation with his opponent taking a short-notice fight.

From a pre-fight betting perspective, I don't technically project value on this fight – in the moneyline, total, or winning method markets.

Based on the cardio dynamic, I would bet Semelsberger to win in Round 2 (+540) or Round 3 (+1000). Alternatively, or in addition, wait to live bet Semelsberger after Round 1.

Bets

• Matthew Semelsberger wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.15u) at DraftKings
• Matthew Semelsberger wins in Round 3 (+900, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Matthew Semelsberger Live after Round 1

Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers

Crowdsourced Projections: Jake Matthews (67.7%)

The Australian Jake Matthews has proven extremely enigmatic at the UFC level, with his skill level and overall quality varying significantly from one fight to the next.

Matthews is rarely trustworthy as a favorite but always tempting as an underdog, and seeing a -300 price tag next to his name on Saturday – after getting knocked down three times in his last fight – should catch your attention.

Darrius Flowers is making his debut after earning a contract on Contender Series. He's the smaller man in the fight (two-inch discrepancy in height and reach) but arguably carries more power, which could test Matthews' suspect chin.

Additionally, while Matthews may have the grappling advantage, Flowers is reliable to change levels and shoot takedowns, a well-rounded strategy that could create openings for his strikes.

However, Matthews should have a significant grappling advantage, and it may be unwise for Flowers to shoot in recklessly or he could stick his neck into a front choke.

Still, I projected Flowers closer to +210 in this fight; with his moneyline floating past +220, I'm inclined to take a small shot on the underdog.

However, I don't see value in the total or any winning method props for this fight.

Bets

• Darrius Flowers (+225, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro

Crowdsourced Projections: Roman Kopylov (65%)

It might be challenging to justify Roman Koplyov – a boxer with good body kicks – as a significant favorite in a matchup against Claudio Ribeiro, who carries considerable power and has grappling upside.

However, the projection model thinks the pricing is fair and that the fight is correctly lined across the board – in terms of the moneyline, total, and winning-method props.

I would need something closer to +200 to back the underdog, Ribeiro, whose striking defense (38%) is a significant liability.

Kopylov mixes up his combinations well to both the head and body, and he can put attritional damage on and wear down opponents. And he has continually improved his defensive grappling throughout his four-fight UFC run.

Ribeiro likely needs to land takedowns or one big impactful strike to win this fight. Otherwise, Kopylov seems likely to pick him apart on the feet and potentially put Ribeiro away late after plenty of bodywork.

Neither fighter has shown great cardio in prior bouts, and sending the pair to Utah could create sloppy exchanges if this fight extends beyond 10 minutes.

Still, I trust Kopylov's tenacity and experience down the stretch; Ribeiro's limited technique falls apart as he tires.

We'll lean into the cardio dynamic – and the elevation here – and bet an SGP with Kopylov and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+150 at DraftKings).

Alternatively, you could sprinkle Kopylov to win in Round 2 (+450) and Round 3 (+900). Still, I would prefer to encapsulate his decision equity in what could be a sloppy affair.

Bets

• SGP (+150, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Kopylov & Over 1.5 Rounds

C.J. Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador

Crowdsourced Projections: C.J. Vergara (58%)

Vinicius Salvador missed weight on Friday, coming in 2.5 pounds over the flyweight limit and looking depleted on the scales.

I already thought he was at a cardio disadvantage while fighting at elevation against C.J. Vergara.

Now, I expect the difference to be even more pronounced in the later rounds.

Salvador should find his best success early in the fight. He is large for the division, hits hard, has a two-inch reach advantage, and Vergara is hittable (53% striking defense).

Still, if he can't put away Vergara early (100% finish rate), I expect the Brazilian to fade down the stretch and potentially get finished.

Vergara is very durable and regularly fights through adversity. He should be able to utilize his cardio and composure to weather the storm (or run away from it) and take over late against a tiring opponent, as he did in his last fight against Daniel Lacerda.

I don't project value on either side of the moneylin. However, I do expect this fight to reach a decision slightly more than the odds suggest (projected +130, listed +150) and see value on Vergara to win by decision (projected +245, listed +260).

Given Vergara's cardio advantage – alongside the projected value on his decision prop and the fight to reach a decision – I played Vergara in a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with the Over 1.5 Rounds (+140). That bet should encompass all of his decision equity and the majority of his finish equity, which is likelier to come from an accumulation of damage from a tiring opponent than any individual strike.

Additionally, look to live bet Vergara after Round 1, when Salvador should begin to fade.

While I would consider betting Vergara to win in Rounds 2 or 3, the model would rather me play the decision prop, so I opted for the SGP.

You can include Vergara by decision – or the fight to reach a decision – on your round-robin tickets. However, considering Salvador's weight miss and the Salt Lake City elevation, I have no interest in sweating that from a straight bet perspective.

Bets

• SGP (+145, 0.25u): C.J. Vergara & Over 1.5 Rounds
• C.J. Vergara Live after Round 1

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles

Crowdsourced Projections: Gabriel Bonfim (76.8%)

The younger Bonfim, Gabriel, enters his second UFC fight as a significant favorite against the experienced Trevin Giles.

Gabriel Bonfim has finished both wins under the UFC banner by first-round submission, but we successfully bet against his brother, Ismael, as a significant favorite earlier this month.

Of the two brothers, I am higher on Gabriel, who has smooth boxing, underrated power, and a slick, opportunistic submission game.

Giles is the longer fighter (two-inch reach advantage), but Bonfim should have him covered everywhere, skill for skill, and should have the advantages in cardio and durability too.

I projected Bonfim as a -330 favorite – in line with the lower end of the betting market – and I don't see value on either side of this fight.

However, I will be using Bonfim aggressively in DFS, and if his moneyline price drops to -315 or better, I'll consider finding a way to bet him.

I don't see any value concerning the total or the prop market either. Bonfim's potential win condition is appropriately split between his knockout and submission props, and a potential club and sub is always in play against Giles.

Unfortunately, we'll have to wait for a more reasonable line on Bonfim in the future or hope he becomes overhyped after another quick finish and look for a more appropriate spot to bet against him.

Bets

• Pass

Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland

Crowdsourced Projections: Kevin Holland (55%)

Under the old MMA scoring system, in which judges credited fighters for top time and control positions, I would have considered backing Michael Chiesa in this spot.

The former Ultimate Fighter winner is a high-volume wrestler (3.4 takedowns per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy) who sticks to his game plan and limits striking exchanges (1.88 strikes landed, 1.67 absorbed per minute).

Kevin Holland is the exact opposite – an incredibly accurate and high-volume striker with porous takedown defense (50% career) who regularly makes decisions that harm his ability to win fights. For example, Holland took down Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson multiple times in his last bout – but chose to let Thompson up to give the fans a more exciting fight.

Still, Holland should land more damage in this fight – whatever time the fight stays standing. He has a six-inch reach advantage and should be able to provide better optics for the judges in striking exchanges.

UFC 291 Props: MMA Prop Squad Picks for Dustin Poirier, Derrick Lewis, Tony Ferguson and MoreRead now

Moreover, Chiesa doesn't do much with his takedowns, prioritizing position over submission, with limited ground and pound. Chiesa may land a takedown and subsequently accumulate control time in each round, but the judges likely side with Holland, who you can expect to land more strikes – and damage – throughout the fight.

Additionally, Holland has looked stronger and his defensive grappling seems better at welterweight than it did at middleweight.

If Chiesa has difficulty getting Holland down to the mat, or if Holland can routinely pop back to his feet, Chiesa might gas himself out by setting a detrimental pace in the thin air of Salt Lake City.

I also give Holland significantly more finishing upside in this fight. His defensive jiu-jitsu should be enough to stay safe on his back, but he has serious knockout potential on the feet and might be able to snack Chiesa's neck in a scramble, which has happened multiple times to Chiesa in the UFC.

Chiesa could get to some dominant positions in this fight, but I think his finishing upside is relatively low and that he needs much more to go right than Holland does to see his hand raised.

I don't project value on this fight from any perspective – moneyline, total, or props.

As I mentioned above, a couple of years ago, I would have backed Chiesa as an underdog with a clear takedown upside. But I don't think he'll do enough with those takedowns to make them matter enough under the current scoring system.

However, if his moneyline floats up closer to +135, I'll reassess my opinion; I projected Chiesa as a +122 underdog.

Bets

• Pass

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

Crowdsourced Projections: Bobby Green (79.2%)

Rarely does the UFC keep a fighter around after five consecutive losses (three by finish), but Tony Ferguson is a big name and a rare exception.

"El Cucuy" will look to get back in the win column on Saturday against fellow fan favorite Bobby "King" Green, a shorter boxer at a five-inch reach disadvantage who will need to work his way into the pocket to let his hands go.

Athletically, 39-year-old Ferguson seems wholly shot at this stage of his career. He took a life-changing beating in his interim title fight with Justin Gaethje, subsequently had his arm and leg in compromising positions (without tapping) against Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush, ate a hellacious front kick KO from Michael Chandler, and then submitted to Nate Diaz, in a fight in which he looked concerningly stiff and slow.

UFC 291 Best Bets: Expert Picks for Blachowicz vs. Pereira, Ferguson vs. Green, MoreRead now

Additionally, the Diaz fight was at 170 pounds, and Ferguson is now moving back down to 155, where he should be even less durable.

Green's speed differential and athletic advantages could be overwhelming in this matchup. And, as I mentioned, Green needs to get inside of Ferguson's range to box him up, so we could see a phone booth fight where Green has a significant advantage in speed and striking defense (with his shoulder roll technique).

Green doesn't load up or carry power in any individual punch, but he can overwhelm opponents with an accumulation of strikes.

This matchup is similar to Green's matchup with a past-his-prime Al Iaquinta at UFC 268, the quickest win of Green's UFC entire. Iaquinta seemed stuck in the mud, and Green put him away within three minutes. I suspect the same thing could happen to Ferguson on Saturday, given how he looked in his last fight.

Still, Green is 36, sustained a bad KO loss to Drew Dober in December, and will need to put himself into harm's way – and create some high-variance exchanges – if he wants to finish the Boogeyman in the pocket.

Ferguson landed clean shots against Diaz and Chandler, and his offensive striking still has some potency, even if his athleticism has seemingly fallen off a cliff.

I projected this bout to end inside the distance 55% of the time (-122 implied odds); bet that prop up to -120, or play the Under 2.5 rounds at a slightly better number.

Given the elevation – and the potential for cardio collapse late in any of these fights – I would rather lay the juice to get the final 2.5 minutes encompassed in my wager.

I'll consider Green by KO/TKO (projected +180) or inside the distance (projected +130) for round robins.

Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings

Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Crowdsourced Projections: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (68.3%)

At age 38, after 38 professional fights, Derrick Lewis might be on his way out of the UFC. He's a loser of four of his past five bouts, all by finish. His durability is seemingly slipping.

Lewis was never a highly skilled MMA fighter. He's a historic power puncher with an incredible ability to stand up against wrestlers and scare strikers into low-volume staring contests.

While he's taking a step down in competition here, Lewis' level of opposition has never mattered as much as those opponents' ability to take a punch.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima seems like a potential nightmare matchup for Lewis. He can hammer Lewis with low kicks – something Lewis, with his relatively skinny legs, has shown disdain for in the past.

Alternatively, Lima can choose to grapple and see if he can keep a man with a career 41% defensive takedown rate on his back. The Brazilian has some underrated submission skills, and I think his submission price (projected +485) is likely undervalued – and an excellent round-robin booster.

UFC 291 Parlays: This All-Submission Parlay Pays More Than 20-1Read now

Lima has six finish losses on his record, but not because he can't take a punch. He tends to tire the longer his fights extend and has never finished an opponent after the opening frame.

Both fighters tend to have seven to 10 minutes of gas in a regular fight; in Utah, they may only have one round, and this fight could get extremely sloppy if it extends beyond the halfway point.

I expect this fight to end 87% of the time (-645 implied odds) and would use the ends inside the distance or "ITD" prop in a parlay, up to -615. Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the violence.

Bets

• Parlay (-144, 0.5u) at Caesars: Lewis vs. Lima Ends Inside the Distance (-550) & Gaethje vs. Poirier Ends Inside the Distance (-230)

Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira

Crowdsourced Projections: Alex Pereira (52.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event, check out the Blachowicz vs. Pereira preview from my colleague, Dan Tom.

Dan and I arrived at the same conclusion – and bet – for the fight; I projected Alex Pereira as a slight favorite and would play his moneyline up to a break-even price at -110.

The one concern I have here for Pereira is his chin; three months removed from a brutal knockout loss to his rival, Israel Adesanya, and now moving up to light heavyweight to face a bigger hitter and a legit 205er in former champion Jan Blachowicz.

Even though he is moving up a division, Pereira should be the bigger man (two inches taller, one-inch reach advantage), and I expect him to hit harder than Jan.

While Blachowicz had a competitive kickboxing match with Adesanya (won 85-77 on distance strikes), checks leg kicks exceptionally well, and could conceivably keep up with Pereira on the feet, "Poatan" is simply the better and more technical kickboxer. Blachowicz needs to wrestle if he wants to win this matchup consistently.

Despite all of Blachowicz's success wrestling and controlling Adesanya (landed three of five takedowns, 7:06 control time, and secured a 10-8 round on two scorecards), two things stand out to be about that fight.

The first was the size and strength differential between the fighters, and Adesanya's inability to get his shoulders off of the mat. And the second is the cage size; that title bout took place in the small confines of the UFC Apex.

In a larger cage, Pereira should be able to stay on the outside and use his reach to pick apart Blachowicz or counter him as he enters for level changes. And even if he does get taken down, Pereira has proven extremely strong and has shown that his defensive grappling is quickly improving under the tutelage of his coach, former UFC light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira.

Pereira is the far lesser MMA grappler in this matchup. Still, Blachowicz has been out-grappled by Teixiera, Aleksandar Rakic, and Magomed Ankalev in his past three fights since out-grappling Adesanya.

I think Jan's takedown success against Adesanya resulted from the size differential and the smaller Apex octagon.

Additionally, Blachowicz is 40 and hasn't looked as sharp in his recent bouts (1-1-1, including a win via injury and a controversial draw) as he did on his run to the title. His "legendary Polish power" (nine knockout wins in 39 fights) is overrated, too, especially when you contextualize the chinny opponents he finished and discount the Rakic injury from his record.

And I anticipate Pereira – who is younger, moving up a division, and not looking to wrestle offensively – to likely have the cardio advantage at altitude.

Given Blachowicz's age – and Pereira's recent knockout loss – a finish on either side does seem likely. In addition to Pereira's moneyline, I would include his knockout prop (projected +138) or inside-the-distance prop (projected +124) in a round-robin.

However, I don't see any value concerning the total.

Bets

• Alex Pereira (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

Crowdsourced Projections: Dustin Poirier (58.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and BMF title bout, check out my Poirier vs. Gaethje fight preview.

In short, I projected Poirier as a 58.2% favorite (-139 implied odds) in this fight, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.

I project this bout to end by way of finish 75% of the time (-300 implied odds), and I see value concerning the under or fight-to-end inside the distance prop, which you can bet up to -270 at a 2% edge compared to my number.

You can bet that prop straight or include it in a parlay (up to -285), which I did with the Lewis-Lima bout earlier on this card.

In the winning method market, Poirier by KO/TKO (projected +186, listed +210) stands out as a potential value bet. However, I wouldn't recommend including that prop on anything beyond a round-robin ticket; bet the fight to end inside the distance.

Bets

• Fight Ends Insistance the Distance (up to -285) as a parlay piece

UFC 291 Bets

Moneyline Bets

• Priscila Cachoeira (+240, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Darrius Flowers (+225, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Alex Pereira (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars

Prop Bets and Totals

• Priscila Cachoeira wins Inside the Distance (+450, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Matthew Semelsberger wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.15u) at DraftKings
• Matthew Semelsberger wins in Round 3 (+900, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Ferguson/Green, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings

Parlays

• SGP (+145, 0.25u): C.J. Vergara & Over 1.5 Rounds
• SGP (+150, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Kopylov & Over 1.5 Rounds
• Parlay (-144, 0.5u) at Caesars: Lewis vs. de Lima Ends Inside the Distance (-550) & Gaethje vs. Poirier Ends Inside the Distance (-230)

Live Bets

• Matthew Semelsberger Live after Round 1
• C.J. Vergara Live after Round 1