Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles Odds
Can Gabriel Bonfim keep his perfect record – and finishing rate – intact when he meets fellow welterweight Trevin Giles in the featured UFC 291 preliminary card bout on Saturday?
The betting market overwhelmingly thinks so, with Bonfim a substantial favorite over the streaky Giles, who quietly looks for this third straight victory.
Does either 170-pounder offer value from a betting perspective? Let's dig in.
Tale of the Tape
| Bonfim | Giles | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-4 | 16-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:31 | 11:40 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/20/1997 | 8/6/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.95 | 2.99 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.76 | 2.09 |
| SS Defense | 65% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.98 | 1.29 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 55% |
| TD Def | 100% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 6.0 | 0.3 |
The younger Bonfim, Gabriel, enters his second UFC fight as a significant favorite against the experienced Giles.
Gabriel Bonfim has finished both wins under the UFC banner by first-round submission, but we successfully bet against his brother, Ismael, as a significant favorite earlier this month.
Of the two brothers, I am higher on Gabriel, who has smooth boxing, underrated power, and a slick, opportunistic submission game.
Giles is the longer fighter (two-inch reach advantage), but Bonfim should have him covered everywhere, skill for skill.
Bonfim should also have the advantages in cardio and durability too.
Bonfim vs. Giles Pick
I projected Bonfim as a -330 favorite – in line with the lower end of the betting market – and I don't see value on either side of this fight.
However, I will be using Bonfim aggressively in DFS, and if his moneyline price drops to -315 or better, I'll consider finding a way to bet him.
I don't see any value concerning the total or the prop market either. Bonfim's potential win condition is appropriately split between his knockout and submission props, and a potential club and sub is always in play against Giles.
Unfortunately, we'll have to wait for a more reasonable line on Bonfim in the future or hope he becomes overhyped after another quick finish and look for a more appropriate spot to bet against him. For now, there are better options.
The Pick: Pass
