Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic Odds
The UFC 291 early preliminary card should get a boost of entertainment with Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic.
The welterweight clash features the sometimes-inconsistent but always-entertaining Semelsberger against fellow slugger Medic, who returns from a yearlong layoff to meet one of his toughest tests yet.
Let's break down a matchup that has many hardcore fans eager with anticipation.
Tale of the Tape
| Semelsberger | Medic | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-5 | 8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:19 | 4:00 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 169.5 lbs. | 170.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 71" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/23/1992 | 4/25/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.05 | 8.14 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 66% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.21 | 3.76 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.16 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 70% | 0% |
| TD Def | 52% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Medic is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Yohan Lainesse. And a short notice fight at elevation in Salt Lake City – for a competitor with already suspect cardio – seems like a less-than-ideal situation.
The betting market tends to agree; Semelsberger opened as a -140 favorite (58.3% implied) for this fight and has ballooned to -205 (67.2%) or higher as of writing.
Medic falls into the early-finisher archetype (no fights beyond the fight-minute mark) and comes from the low-level Alaska FC regional scene, but he is well-rounded and has moved to train with a solid camp at Kings MMA.
I expect him to be his typically dangerous self early on in this fight and to potentially have the speed and skill advantage over Semelsberger, who owns a four-inch reach advantage.
However, Semelsberger has proven himself to be highly durable – with a solid gas tank – and I would expect him to rally as Medic tires the longer the fight goes.
Both fighters carry power, but while Medic is the more talented martial artist, Semelsberger has the better hardware. And I expect that to prove the difference, particularly at elevation with his opponent taking a short-notice fight.
Semelsberger vs. Medic Pick
From a pre-fight betting perspective, I don't technically project value on this fight – in the moneyline, total, or winning method markets.
Based on the cardio dynamic, I would bet Semelsberger to win in Round 2 (+540) or Round 3 (+1000).
Alternatively, or in addition, wait to live bet Semelsberger after Round 1.
The Picks: Matthew Semelsberger wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.15u) at DraftKings | Semelsberger wins in Round 3 (+900, 0.1u) at DraftKings | Semelsberger Live after Round 1
