Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira Odds
Despite coming off a loss and taking the bout on short notice, Miranda Maverick is a sizable favorite over Priscila Cachoeira on Saturday at UFC 291.
The flyweight bout kicks off the 11-bout fight card and represents a golden opportunity for Cachoeira to notch a win against an opponent who's a decade younger and still on the rise.
However, the powerful and well-rounded Maverick is a tough out for anyone.
Who has the edge in this curtain-jerker? Let's dig in.
Tale of the Tape
| Maverick | Cachoeira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5 | 12-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:28 | 8:53 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 65" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/1/1997 | 8/19/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.82 | 4.68 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.87 | 7.85 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.24 | 0.21 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 33% |
| TD Def | 42% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Saturday's opener features a striker vs. grappler matchup in which the grappler, Maverick, is appropriately favored. But she's potentially overvalued.
I projected Cachoeira closer to a +200 underdog in this contest and would bet her moneyline at +215 or better. However, relative to the market, I see a potentially more significant edge on her finish prop (projected +356, listed +450).
Cachoeira has finished seven of her 12 career victories (58%). Still, I expect her to finish Saturday's bout closer to 65% of the time if she does win while the betting market puts her probability at 55%, below her career average.
🔥 Priscila Cachoeira has secured three of her UFC wins with crushing strikes! 💥 Was her devastating KO of Ariane Lipski in her last fight the most brutal of all?
Don't miss the return of "Zombie Girl" at #UFC291 this Saturday. 🥊 #WMMA#UFCpic.twitter.com/H6I2EjFc9D
— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) July 26, 2023
Cachoeira is the taller (four inches) and larger fighter in this matchup, and she hits significantly harder. Maverick might be the better technical striker, but in smaller weight classes like women's flyweight, advantages in physicality and aggression go a long way.
Unless Maverick takes down Cachoeira, I expect her to lose minutes standing on power optics alone.
Cachoeira's takedown defense (46% career) is relatively nonexistent, and her defensive grappling has significant holes too.
Still, she is extremely tough and never quits on herself, routinely fighting through adversity (or finding ways to cheat like eye-gouging an opponent) to stay in the fight.
Maverick doesn't impose significant ground and pound – or damage – on her opponents when in control positions. And she doesn't have a particularly slick submission game.
Maverick vs. Cachoeira Pick
There's a possibility that Maverick loses a controversial split decision in which she lands takedowns in every round but doesn't do enough with them while Cachoeira swings rounds her way in her limited opportunities to strike.
As a result, while I typically bet Cachoeira inside the distance in nearly all of her fights, I'm inclined to split a wager between her moneyline and her finish prop.
Given the way fights are now scored, the judges should favor Cachoeira's damage over Maverick's control.
The Pick: Cachoeira (+240, 0.25u) at DraftKings | Cachoeira wins Inside the Distance (+450, 0.25u) at DraftKings
