UFC 292 Odds: Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for All 12 Fights (Saturday, August 19)

The UFC 292 odds board features a main event between bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley as well as a women's title fight between strawweight titleholder Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos.

Below, I've made my UFC 292 picks and have put together all 12 fight breakdowns from Saturday's event at TD Garden in Boston.

The UFC 292 preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPN at 8 p.m. ET for additional prelims. Then the five-fight main card will commence on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet every fight on the UFC 292 card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 292 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's x bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

UFC 292 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 292 Odds

Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz

Crowdsourced Projections: Karine Silva (55.3%)

While I lean to the underdog in Saturday's opener, I would probably need around +135 or better to play Maryna Moroz pre-fight on the moneyline, compared to my projection at +124.

Karine Silva is a dangerous finisher, however, with nine knockouts and seven submissions across 16 victories, including three submissions wins under the UFC banner. And you might get a better live price on Moroz after Round 1, anyway, against a fighter who is 0-2 in bouts that have reached a third round. Additionally, Moroz holds a submission win over Silva from nine years ago in 2014.

Silva is the superior grappler once the fight hits the mat, but I view the striking and wrestling between these two flyweights as a relative wash.

Moroz, a master of sport in boxing and a coach for the Ukrainian Olympic boxing team, has rounded out her game and demonstrated offensive wrestling success in her past three wins, landing five takedowns and spending roughly 47% of those fights in control positions (18 of 38 minutes).

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Confusingly, Moroz never attempted a takedown in her recent loss to Jennifer Maia.

If Moroz can avoid the first-round finish and use her improved wrestling to keep this fight standing, I expect her to take over down the stretch against a fighter accustomed to winning inside 10 minutes.

I project a slightly more significant edge on Moroz to win by decision (projected +220, listed +250) than her moneyline. Poke Moroz's decision prop (to +240) while we wait for the moneyline to come into range. And either add to that position or wait for a live entry on Moroz at a juicy number after the first round.

Bets

• Marya Moroz wins by Decision (+250, 0.2u at Caesars)
• Maryna Moroz Live after Round 1

Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva

Crowdsourced Projections: Natalia Silva (71.8%)

The betting odds suggest that Saturday's matchup between Andrea Lee and Natalia Silva will reach a decision around 64.3% of the time (-180 market odds) – slightly higher than the average for women's flyweight (60.4%). And my projections are right in line with that number.

Based on that factor alone, you should be interested in backing Lee as a significant underdog if the judges are going to get involved.

Lee is also the larger fighter (two inches taller, four-inch reach advantage) and has faced far superior competition compared to Silva, a former strawweight on a nine-fight winning streak since her 2017 regional scene loss to current No. 9 UFC strawweight contender Marina Rodriguez.

Still, Silva is eight years younger and entering the prime of her career whereas Lee (34) is beyond the average age (30) for the division.

As I routinely mention, when there is at least an eight-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 68.8% of the time (638-289) at average odds of -131 (56.8%) – about 12% over expectation. And the age difference seems to matter more in the lighter divisions, where power matters less than speed and quickness.

I expect to see a close and competitive three-round decision, but from a moneyline perspective, I would need closer to +280 to back Lee (projected +255) in a dog or pass but potential value trap spot.

Silva by decision was my initial lean, but the odds (+110 at FanDuel) aren't appealing.

Bets

• Wait for +280 on Andrea Lee

Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Crowdsourced Projections: Andre Petroski (61.7%)

Gerald Meerschaert is very comfortable fighting off his back. He has the most submissions (nine) in UFC middleweight history despite poor takedown defense (29% career).

Andre Petroski wrestles at a high volume (9.4 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 57% accuracy). He can likely keep Meerschaert flat on his back for most of this fight, stay safe on top, and win a one-sided decision.

Additionally, Petroski likely has the faster and more powerful hands – to negate a four-inch reach discrepancy – and is the more durable man at this stage of their respective careers.

If he prefers to strike, Petroski should be able to defend any of Meerschaert's takedown attempts and keep this fight standing.

I expect Petroski to dominate this bout's opening round and have opportunities to close the show. However, referees tend to give Meerschaert a little more leeway when he's in trouble – because he has a history of coming back against opponents – and there are several ways in which Petroski can gas himself out and allow Meerschaert to turn the tables in the latter part of the fight.

While I do project value on Meerschaert from a pre-fight perspective (projected +173, listed +200 at Caesars), I'm not interested in betting on him until after Round 1, when you should get a far superior number.

Additionally, Meerschaert by submission (projected +290, listed +390 at FanDuel) is a solid option for round robins.

Bets

• Gerald Meerschaert Live after Round 1

Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson

Crowdsourced Projections: Brad Katona (58.1%)

As we'll discuss in the following two sections, I played the underdogs in both tournament finals for The Ultimate Fighter 31, and we'll hope to go 1-1 at worst across those plus-money bets against two relatively similar favorites.

Bantamweight Brad Katona is a point fighter (8-2 in decisions across 14 career fights) with a well-rounded skill set, excellent cardio, good durability and solid fight IQ. He spends much time searching for ways to get into superior positions against his opponents and looks to kill the clock from there.

Cody Gibson is the much bigger athlete (four inches taller, seven-inch reach advantage) and far more potent striker in a fight favored by the market to reach a decision.

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Across a 15-minute fight, I anticipate the judges to prefer Gibson's damaging shots over Katona's positional control and peppering volume unless Katona completely dominates clinching and wrestling a much larger opponent.

Unfortunately, Gibson's line moved about 20 cents since I bet him before Friday's weigh-in, and I'm not sure I can recommend betting Gibson below +150 (projected +139).

However, I also show value in the fight to reach a decision (projected -220, listed -176 at FanDuel) and on Gibson to win by decision (projected +290, listed +400 at FanDuel). I would bet the former straight to -200 and include the latter in a round-robin.

Bets

• Cody Gibson (+152, 0.5u at FanDuel)
• Fight Goes to Decision (-176, 0.25u at FanDuel)

Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Crowdsourced Projections: Austin Hubbard (57.5%)

Similar to Brad Katona, Austin Hubbard is a point fighter (8-4 in decisions across 21 career fights) with a well-rounded skill set, excellent cardio, good durability, and solid fight IQ, but like Katona, he doesn't do a lot to separate himself from his opponents; or justify pre-fight favoritism.

Lightweight opponent Kurt Holobaugh carries the power advantage and significantly higher finishing upside (finished 16 of 19 wins) in this matchup and seems likely to sway the judges by brawling with and landing the more damaging shots against a jabbing Hubbard.

Hubbard has the grappling upside, but I expect Holobaugh to look to consistently scramble off his back and avoid getting held for extended stretches.

I also trust Holobaugh's cardio and durability as much as I would Hubbard's, given their respective levels of punching power. And I see no reason why this fight, which is also lines to reach a decision, won't be close and competitive.

As you can see, I have a relatively similar outlook on the two Ultimate Fighter finale matchups and favor the underdog in both bouts against a pair of solid but relatively harmless favorites.

Holobaugh doesn't have the size advantage that Gibson does, potentially explaining the line movement toward one and not the other.

I projected both underdogs at a similar price point (+139 for Gibson and +135 for Holobaugh) and would bet Holobaugh down to around +145.

Unlike the Gibson-Katona matchup, I don't see value concerning the total or any winning method props.

Bets

• Kurt Holobaugh (+150, 0.5u at Caesars)

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Crowdsourced Projections: Gregory Rodrigues (78.7%)

The middleweight bout between Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues and Denis Tiuliun is the likeliest fight to end inside the distance on Saturday (-650 consensus odds).

I couldn't quite get there with my number (projected 85% or -567), but I'm still far higher on the finish chances than the middleweight average (60.2%).

Rodrigues has the skills advantage everywhere in this matchup, and he's the far superior athlete too. Still, the Brazilian has shown a suspect chin, getting knocked out or wobbled in several fights, and he doesn't have the best cardio due to his ripped physique.

The cardio dynamic plays into Rodrigues' approach; even though he is an incredible grappler and has a significant grappling edge against most opponents, he is hesitant to wrestle because he fears draining his own gas tank.

Rodrigues should have a significant grappling edge against Denis Tiuliun, but Robocop may not pursue the takedown right away. And he could put himself in harm's way against another potent power puncher, seven months removed from a nasty knockout loss at UFC 283, against Brunno Ferreira.

Rodrigues has good wrestling for a jiu-jitsu practitioner (4.4 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 50% accuracy). Tiuliulin is a below-average defensive wrestler and grappler, even relative to the middleweight division. He also gives up his back easily, which plays right in Rodrigues' style, and I'd imagine that one takedown should be the end of the fight.

And if he doesn't, we could see a quick finish on the feet between two powerful strikers.

I don't trust the cardio on either side, and the longer the fight goes, the more I'd be concerned about laying a significant number on a finish prop.

I projected Rodrigues as a -370 favorite in this matchup but would typically want around -330 to bet him straight or at least -345 to use him as a parlay piece, and the market has moved closer to -375.

And while I expect Rodrigues to win inside the distance (projected -220), there's no value in the line (-225 at FanDuel).

Given the grappling differential, I was surprised to find Rodrigues by submission (projected +182, listed +225) at a much better price than his knockout prop (projected +218, listed +110).

I'll bet that (and include it in a round-robin) in addition to parlaying the under 1.5 rounds with another total on this card.

Bets

• Gregory Rodrigues wins by Submission (+225, 0.2u at DraftKings)
• Parlay (+142, 0.33u at Caesars): Under 1.5 Rounds (-190) & Magny/Garry Over 1.5 Rounds (-170)

Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares

Crowdsourced Projections: Brad Tavares (66.2%)

Unless you assume that Chris Weidman is wholly shot – more than two years removed from one of the most widely viewed gruesome injuries of all time – it's difficult to justify him as this significant of an underdog, with 100% of the grappling upside in this matchup.

Even before the injury, Weidman's career appeared to be nearing its end. Since his final successful title defense against Vitor Belfort at UFC 187 in 2015, Weidman is just 2-5 in the promotion, with five knockout losses.

His chin had cracked, and his once-elite athleticism had regressed. And a significant leg injury – and more time removed from competition – isn't going to help (though it may be a blessing in disguise for his chin).

While Brad Tavares has been more active, he has also seemingly regressed in recent fights, wearing a ton of damage in a one-sided loss to Dricus Du Plessis before a vicious knockout – the fourth of his career – against Bruno Silva in April.

Tavares has shown solid takedown defense throughout his career (80%). Still, elite wrestlers like Yoel Romero have been able to ground him, and if Weidman's wrestling is anywhere close to where it was before his injury, I believe he can land takedowns in this fight.

Additionally, prime for prime, Weidman is the superior striker, and Tavares is much more of a point fighter than a power puncher with 10 of his 11 UFC wins by decision.

While Weidman is a former champion, Tavares never cracked the elite levels at middleweight, and skill for skill, given similar health and levels of athleticism for both fighters, Weidman would be a significant favorite.

The question is how much you can bake in the injury – and the layoff – into his upcoming performance.

I projected Weidman's line closer to +200 and would bet his moneyline at +210 or better.

Additionally, you can play his decision prop (projected +394, listed +500) straight or include it in a round-robin.

Bets

• Chris Weidman (+220, 0.5u at Caesars)
• Chris Weidman wins by Decision (+500, 0.1u at DraftKings)

Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

Crowdsourced Projections: Marlon Vera (58.8%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's PPV opener, check out the Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

While I love Billy's angle, I'm happy to bet Munhoz on the moneyline to +155 (projected +143).

While he's six years older and at a five-inch reach disadvantage, Munhoz has a path to apparent favoritism and a high likelihood of winning the opening round.

"Chito" Vera typically starts slow and tends to give away the first round to his opponents as he makes his reads, looks for openings, and lets his pace build. While that style has proven well in five-round battles, Vera is highly susceptible to losing on the scorecards in three-round fights since he's typically rallying from behind and looking for a finish.

This is his first three-round bout since late 2021 after headlining a trio of UFC Fight Night-type cards. And Vera may fail to adjust his pace to compensate for fewer rounds after becoming accustomed to 25-minute fights.

While Chito's attritional style works well against many opponents, Munhoz is highly durable (never finished in his career) and has solid cardio, both of which play against Vera's best attributes.

Unless Vera steps on the gas from the outset, he might fall behind – as he typically does – and eventually get outwrestled by a superior grappler.

Chito's primary weakness as a fighter is his takedown defense (69%) and inability to scramble off his back.

While Munhoz hasn't typically attempted takedowns with consistency (0.51 landed per 15 minutes, 20% accuracy), he's also faced a run of superior wrestlers at the top of the bantamweight division (Dominick Cruz, Jose Aldo, Jimmie Rivers, Frankie Edgar, Cody Garbrandt in consecutive bouts). He also hasn't had the opportunity to employ his offensive wrestling game, with which he can threaten submissions with his world-class jiu-jitsu skills.

If you're looking to bet Vera, wait until live after Round 1 – when he typically picks up the pace.

From a pre-fight perspective, it's Munhoz or pass, and you should take a look at Munhoz by decision (projected 204, listed +240) in a matchup heavily favored to go the distance.

Bets

• Pedro Munhoz (+170, 0.5u at Caesars)
• Pedro Munhoz wins by Decision (+240, 0.1u at FanDuel)

Mario Bautista vs. Da'Mon Blackshear

Crowdsourced Projections: Mario Bautista (65.6%)

Da'Mon Blackshear one week ago was in Las Vegas and hit the third twister in UFC history, and after that win over Jose Johnson, he will step in on short notice instead of Cody Garbrandt to face the highly talented Mario Bautista.

Blackshear is the bigger man but will have to cut weight for the second time in a week, which could give Bautista a crucial cardio advantage down the stretch against a larger opponent (Blackshear is one-inch taller with a three-inch reach advantage).

"The Monster" also has a durability edge and hits harder, which makes him an intriguing underdog play. But Bautista is the faster man, the more technical striker, and likely the better wrestler. He can also dictate where this fight takes place and choose to attempt to keep Blackshear on his back, or counter-wrestle and strike.

I expect this fight to reach a decision 53% of the time (-113 implied odds) and expect Batusita to win that decision (projected +154, listed +175 at FanDuel) more often than not.

Considering the potential pace of this fight, I would rather bet the over 2.5 rounds at a pick'em price and avoid the potential for a late-fight, cardio-driven stoppage.

Bets

• Over 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u at WynnBet)

Ian Machado Garry vs. Neil Magny

Crowdsourced Projections: Ian Machado Garry (80.4%)

Neil Magny is stepping in on short notice for Geoff Neal and finds himself in a familiar spot as one of the UFC's main welterweight gatekeepers, looking to turn away a rising prospect at plus money.

Magny is an elite point fighter (17-2 career in decisions) with excellent cardio, a long frame, and a well-rounded game. Still, at age 36, his durability and speed are noticeably diminished, and cardio won't be on his side as usual, given the short-notice booking.

Ian Garry, who is at a six-inch reach disadvantage in this fight, typically thrives on being the longer fighter. Still, the undefeated prospect continues to make improvements as a striker and displayed a solid offensive grappling skill set in Cage Warriors before joining the UFC.

Garry should be the much faster man than Magny, which should help to negate the reach discrepancy, and I expect him to look to use his kicks to chip away at Magny from range.

Magny needs to force the grappling (5.6 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 41% accuracy), put Garry on his back, and keep him there if he wants to win this fight. And I do suspect that Garry's offensive grappling game is more complete than his defensive wrestling or scrambling.

Still, Magny struggled to land takedowns or win clinch battles with Phil Rowe in his last fight – in addition to losing the distance striking (32-17) – and it does seem like he has hit a physical cliff, nearly 40 fights into his professional career.

Garry is 10 years younger, and the age gap I mentioned earlier is also present in this fight. Younger fighters win about 10-12% above expectation in this spot, relative to closing betting odds.

As a result, I'm not going to force a bet on Magny, even though this is the exact type of spot where I would typically back him.

And while I don't project any actual betting value on this fight, I'm using the over 1.5 rounds (-175) as a parlay piece with the under 1.5 rounds from Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin from earlier on this card.

I like both bets but am concerned one will fall short, and I'd somewhat reduce my exposure to both.

Bets

• Use Over 1.5 Rounds (-170 at Caesars) as a parlay leg

Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos

Crowdsourced Projections: Zhang Weili (70.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event and strawweight title bout, check out the Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

This title fight is heavily favored to end inside the distance, with consensus odds sitting around -350 (77.8% implied), more than double the divisional average of 35%.

Even after accounting for the additional championship rounds, oddsmakers expect a violent affair.

Saturday will mark the third five-round fight of her career, but Lemos has never been past the 15-minute mark. Zhang has gone the distance twice and spent a more extended period of her career training for five-round bouts.

I don't trust the cardio for either fighter, but it should be an area where Zhang has the advantage.

I expect Lemos to find her best success early against a hittable opponent. She has a crucial two-inch reach advantage at distance and better head and front kicks, but Zhang is likely the superior wrestler and will look to mix in takedowns throughout the fight to keep Lemos off balance.

Ultimately, it isn't easy to project Lemos as too significant of an underdog considering her finishing upside and physicality. And unless she gets stuck on the bottom for significant stretches, I can't imagine her looking like too significant underdog over the first 10 minutes of the fight.

Lemos' cardio remains a bit of a mystery but has seemingly improved throughout her UFC career. And while she isn't the best minute winner, the power optics here should be relatively close.

I'll wait until closer to fight time for a peak price on Lemos as more money comes in on Zhang through parlays, and I would bet the underdog at +265 or better.

Additionally, I'll consider betting Lemos by KO (projected +465, listed +550) or will include that on my round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Amanda Lemos (+260, 0.25u at Caesars)
• Amanda Lemos by KO/TKO (+500, 0.1u at FanDuel)

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley

Crowdsourced Projections: Aljamain Sterling (72.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and bantamweight title bout, check out my Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley preview.

In short, I projected champ Sterling as a -269 favorite (72.9% implied odds) in this bout and would bet the champion up to -250 (71.4%) at a 1.5% edge compared to my projection.

Still, it would be best if you waited for the best available price – closer to fight time – considering the overwhelming public action on O'Malley.

I expect the fight to end inside the distance 73% of the time (-266 implied odds) and would bet the inside-the-distance prop for this matchup up to -245.

Since I show value both on Sterling and the under, I also see value in Sterling winning inside the distance (projected -104).

While I have bet only props related to a finish – so far – I'm potentially going to bet on Sterling's moneyline before fight time, too, depending on where the market takes the line.

If that line continues to move towards Sterling – and floats out too far – I may alternatively increase the stake on the bets I currently have on my card.

Bets

• Aljamain Sterling (-240, 0.25u at Caesars)
• Aljamain Sterling wins Inside the Distance (+115, 0.25u at FanDuel)
• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-215, 0.25u at FanDuel)

UFC 292 Bets

Moneyline Bets

• Cody Gibson (+152, 0.5u at FanDuel)
• Kurt Holobaugh (+150, 0.5u at Caesars)
• Chris Weidman (+220, 0.5u at Caesars)
• Pedro Munhoz (+170, 0.5u at Caesars)
• Amanda Lemos (+260, 0.25u at Caesars)
• Aljamain Sterling (-240, 0.25u at Caesars)

Prop Bets and Totals

• Marya Moroz wins by Decision (+250, 0.2u at Caesars)
• Gibson/Katona, Fight Goes to Decision (-176, 0.25u at FanDuel)
• Gregory Rodrigues wins by Submission (+225, 0.2u at DraftKings)
• Blackshear/Bausita, Over 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u at WynnBet)
• Chris Weidman wins by Decision (+500, 0.1u at DraftKings)
• Pedro Munhoz wins by Decision (+240, 0.1u at FanDuel)
• Amanda Lemos by KO/TKO (+500, 0.1u at FanDuel)
• Aljamain Sterling wins Inside the Distance (+115, 0.25u at FanDuel)
• Sterling/O'Malley, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-215, 0.25u at FanDuel)

Parlays

• Parlay (+142, 0.33u at Caesars): Rodrigues/Tiuliulin, Under 1.5 Rounds (-190) & Magny/Garry, Over 1.5 Rounds (-170)

Live Bets

• Maryna Moroz Live after Round 1
• Gerald Meerschaert Live after Round 1