Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh Odds
Either Austin Hubbard or Kurt Holobaugh will soon be crowned the lightweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter 31 reality series.
The Team Chandler contestants have successfully navigated to the tournament final and now clash on the UFC 292 preliminary card on Saturday to determine the overall show winner.
Hubbard is a modest favorite over Holobaugh as both fighters look to revive their UFC careers with a TUF 31 tourney win.
Here's our Hubbard vs. Holobaugh betting breakdown and a look at which fighter is likely to be the next TUF champ.
Tale of the Tape
| Hubbard | Holobaugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-7 | 16-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:17 | 12:42 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 155 pounds | 155.5 pounds |
| Reach | 70 inches | 71 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/8/1986 | 12/22/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 4.51 | 3.67 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 4.28 | 2.97 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 61% |
| TD Def | 45% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Hubbard is a point fighter (8-4 in decisions across 21 career fights) with a well-rounded skill set, excellent cardio, good durability, and solid fight IQ.
However, he doesn't do a lot to separate himself from his opponents or justify pre-fight favoritism.
Holobaugh carries the power advantage and significantly higher finishing upside (finished 16 of 19 wins) in this matchup and seems likely to sway the judges by brawling with and landing the more damaging shots against a jabbing Hubbard.
Hubbard has the grappling upside, but I expect Holobaugh to look to consistently scramble off his back and avoid getting held for extended stretches.
I also trust Holobaugh's cardio and durability as much as I would Hubbard's, given their respective levels of punching power.
And I see no reason why this fight, which is also lines to reach a decision, won't be close and competitive.
Hubbard vs. Holobaugh Pick
As with the other tournament final matchup for The Ultimate Fighter 31, I favor the underdog here with the lightweight matchup.
In both bouts, we have underdogs against a relatively harmless favorite.
In this case, I feel comfortable betting Holobaugh down to around +145.
Unlike the other TUF Finale matchup, though, I don't see value concerning the total or any winning method props, so we'll avoid those options.
The Pick: Kurt Holobaugh (+150, 0.5u at Caesars)
