Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson Odds
Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson will determine the bantamweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter 31 when they clash on the UFC 292 preliminary card on Saturday.
Katona, who won TUF 27 as a featherweight in 2018, could become a two-time TUF winner if he can beat underdog Gibson, who's 7-2 with a pair of regional titles since his first UFC stint ended in 2015.
Who's likely to win the TUF 31 tourney and ensure another UFC run by winning the reality-TV competition?
Here's our Katona vs. Gibson betting preview for UFC 292.
Tale of the Tape
| Katona | Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-2 | 20-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 10:09 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 135 pounds | 135 pounds |
| Reach | 64 inches | 71 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/19/1991 | 9/11/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 3.33 | 2.47 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 31% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 2.98 | 2.54 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.25 | 1.85 |
| TD Acc | 22% | 38% |
| TD Def | 47% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.4 |
I played the underdogs in both tournament finals for TUF 31, and we'll hope to go 1-1 at worst across those plus-money bets against two relatively similar favorites.
Katona is a point fighter (8-2 in decisions across 14 career fights) with a well-rounded skill set, excellent cardio, good durability and solid fight IQ.
The bantamweight spends much time searching for ways to get into superior positions against his opponents and looks to kill the clock from there.
Cody Gibson is the much bigger athlete (four inches taller, seven-inch reach advantage) and far more potent striker in a fight favored by the market to reach a decision.
Across a 15-minute fight, I anticipate the judges to prefer Gibson's damaging shots over Katona's positional control and peppering volume unless Katona completely dominates clinching and wrestling a much larger opponent.
Katona vs. Gibson Pick
Unfortunately, Gibson's line moved about 20 cents since I bet him before Friday's weigh-in, and I'm not sure I can recommend betting Gibson below +150 (projected +139).
However, I also show value in the fight to reach a decision (projected -220, listed -176 at FanDuel) and on Gibson to win by decision (projected +290, listed +400 at FanDuel).
I would bet the former straight to -200 and include the latter in a round-robin.
The Pick: Cody Gibson (+152, 0.5u at FanDuel) | Katona vs. Gibson goes to decision (-176, 0.25u at FanDuel)
