Ian Machado Garry vs. Neil Magny Odds
If Ian Machado Garry is truly the real deal, he gets a chance to prove it on the UFC 292 main card when he meets Neil Magny.
Magny, the UFC's all-time wins leader at welterweight, is a replacement for Geoff Neal and now steps into another immensely tough matchup.
Garry, who's 5-0 in the UFC and 12-0 overall, is a big favorite in this clash. However, Magny has spoiled plans for more than a few upstarts.
Here's our Garry vs. Magny betting preview.
Tale of the Tape
| Garry | Magny | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-11 | 12-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:35 | 10:28 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight | 170 pounds | 170 pounds |
| Reach | 80 inches | 74 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/3/1987 | 11/17/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 3.52 | 6.85 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 2.25 | 4.09 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.30 | 0.29 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 50% |
| TD Def | 56% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Magny is stepping in on short notice for Geoff Neal and finds himself in a familiar spot as one of the UFC's main welterweight gatekeepers, looking to turn away a rising prospect at plus money.
Magny is an elite point fighter (17-2 career in decisions) with excellent cardio, a long frame, and a well-rounded game. Still, at age 36, his durability and speed are noticeably diminished, and cardio won't be on his side as usual, given the short-notice booking.
Garry, who is at a six-inch reach disadvantage in this fight, typically thrives on being the longer fighter. Still, the undefeated prospect continues to make improvements as a striker and displayed a solid offensive grappling skill set in Cage Warriors before joining the UFC.
Garry should be the much faster man than Magny, which should help to negate the reach discrepancy, and I expect him to look to use his kicks to chip away at Magny from range.
Magny needs to force the grappling (5.6 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 41% accuracy), put Garry on his back, and keep him there if he wants to win this fight. And I do suspect that Garry's offensive grappling game is more complete than his defensive wrestling or scrambling.
Still, Magny struggled to land takedowns or win clinch battles with Phil Rowe in his last fight – in addition to losing the distance striking (32-17) – and it does seem like he has hit a physical cliff, nearly 40 fights into his professional career.
Machado Garry vs. Magny Pick
Garry is 10 years younger, and the age gap is meaningful: Younger fighters win about 10-12% above expectation in this spot, relative to closing betting odds.
As a result, I'm not going to force a bet on Magny, even though this is the exact type of spot where I would typically back him.
And while I don't project any actual betting value on this fight, I'm using the over 1.5 rounds (-175) as a parlay piece with the under 1.5 rounds from Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin from earlier on this card.
I like both bets but am concerned one will fall short, and I'd somewhat reduce my exposure to both.
The Pick: Use over 1.5 rounds (-170 at Caesars) as a parlay leg
