Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz Odds
It's a rematch nine years in the making as Maryna Moroz meets Karine Silva in the opening bout of UFC 292 on Saturday.
Moroz won the duo's first meeting via armbar back at a 2014 event in Brazil, and though she's since become a UFC mainstay, she's the underdog as she meets one of the flyweight division's hottest prospects.
Is Silva, who's won seven straight fights, the rightful favorite, or can Moroz make it 2-0 over the Brazilian as they now fight under the UFC banner?
Here's my Silva vs. Moroz betting breakdown for UFC 292.
Tale of the Tape
| Silva | Moroz | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4 | 11-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 4:28 | 13:00 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 125 pounds | 125 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/2/1993 | 9/8/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 2.39 | 4.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 26% | 31% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 3.43 | 4.36 |
| SS Defense | 35% | 53% |
| Take Down Average | 2.24 | 0.69 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 22% |
| TD Def | 0% | 47% |
| Submission Average | 4.5 | 0.7 |
While I lean to the underdog in Saturday's opener, I would probably need around +135 or better to play Moroz pre-fight on the moneyline, compared to my projection at +124.
Silva is a dangerous finisher, however, with nine knockouts and seven submissions across 16 victories, including three submissions wins under the UFC banner. And you might get a better live price on Moroz after Round 1, anyway, against a fighter who is 0-2 in bouts that have reached a third round.
Additionally, Moroz holds a submission win over Silva from nine years ago in 2014.
Silva is the superior grappler once the fight hits the mat, but I view the striking and wrestling between these two flyweights as a relative wash.
Moroz, a master of sport in boxing and a coach for the Ukrainian Olympic boxing team, has rounded out her game and demonstrated offensive wrestling success in her past three wins, landing five takedowns and spending roughly 47% of those fights in control positions (18 of 38 minutes).
Confusingly, Moroz never attempted a takedown in her recent loss to Jennifer Maia.
Silva vs. Moroz Pick
If Moroz can avoid the first-round finish and use her improved wrestling to keep this fight standing, I expect her to take over down the stretch against a fighter accustomed to winning inside 10 minutes.
I project a slightly more significant edge on Moroz to win by decision (projected +220, listed +250) than her moneyline.
Poke Moroz's decision prop (to +240) while we wait for the moneyline to come into range.
And either add to that position or wait for a live entry on Moroz at a juicy number after the first round.
The Pick: Marya Moroz wins by decision (+250, 0.2u at Caesars) | Moroz Live after Round 1
