Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos Odds
The UFC 292 co-main event on Saturday night features a strawweight title fight between champion Zhang Weili and underdog challenger Amanda Lemos.
Weili became a two-time champion last year when she unseated Carla Esparza. She now looks to further cement her name in the MMA history books in Saturday night's UFC 292 pay-per-view co-headliner.
Standing in the Chinese titleholder's way is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division.
Lemos' name may not have a lot of stock with casual fans, but the challenger's skill set presents some interesting problems for the sitting champ.
Tale of the Tape
| Weili | Lemos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-3 | 13-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:02 | 7:25 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'4" |
| Weight | 115 pounds | 114 pounds |
| Reach | 63 inches | 65 inches |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/13/1989 | 5/22/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 5.79 | 4.51 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 4.06 | 3.97 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.97 | 1.12 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 55% |
| TD Def | 66% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Although Lemos is primarily known for her striking, the 36-year-old challenger made some clear efforts to improve her ground game under the care of the Marajo Brothers Team in Brazil.
Whether we're talking about Lemos' improved takedown defense that she parlayed into a guillotine opportunity against Michelle Waterson or the impressive scrambling she displayed opposite Marina Rodriguez, the current champ cannot afford to sleep on the skills of Lemos.
Nevertheless, Lemos' best winning conditions are clearly on the feet.
Get ready for fireworks! 🔥 Amanda Lemos challenges Zhang Weili for the strawweight title in the #UFC292 co-headliner this Saturday. 🏆🇧🇷
7-1 since dropping down to 115lbs, Lemos is on fire. Relive her impressive TKO of Marina Rodriguez in her last bout. #WMMA#UFCpic.twitter.com/GTEhzxfnLP
— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) August 15, 2023
An excellent counter striker, Lemos will likely be trying to catch Zhang getting aggressive on her entries. From check hooks to counter crosses, Lemos has effective weapons from both stances.
The 26-year-old Brazilian also wields nasty knees and front kicks that will likely serve her well given Zhang's stature and dipping nature.
That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see Lemos shelve a large part of her low kicks considering the champion's propensity to counter those kinds of attacks.
In fact, between Weili's background in wushu sanda and her newfound love for muay Thai, countering kicks or converting them into takedowns seems to come second nature to the Chinese fighter.
Weili is also good at punctuating exchanges with hard shots in the pocket that range from hard hooks to spinning assaults, but I have a sneaking suspicion that we see the 34-year-old phenom continue her upward trends in the grappling department.
Get ready, it's FIGHT WEEK! 🔥 Zhang Weili defends her strawweight title against Amanda Lemos at #UFC292 this Saturday.
Rewind to her spectacular submission victory over Carla Esparza, securing the belt for the second time last November! 🥋💥 #WMMA#UFCpic.twitter.com/F3MvQOLQx2
— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) August 14, 2023
As we've seen in recent years, Weili has made some clear improvements in the wrestling realm since working with the Hickman brothers at Bang Tao Muay Thai.
And since incorporating No-Gi world champions like Josh Hinger as her coach, Weili has only continued to sharpen her ground skills (as evident in her submission win over Esparza).
Weili vs. Lemos Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the sitting champ, listing Weili -340 and Lemos +250 as of this writing.
You can easily make the argument that Weili's aggression makes Lemos and her counter-striking livelier than what the betting lines are indicating, so I don't blame anyone with big bankrolls for unloading on the under 3.5 rounds or utilizing it for your parlay legs (as I'll probably end up incorporating the latter by this weekend).
However, if you've been reading these columns or following my analysis for any amount of time, you've probably noticed that I like the get cute with my prognostications by calling rounds and methods.
And though I'll be sprinkling small on what I suspect will be Weili's "hot rounds" in Rounds 2 and 3, I feel strongest about the method in which Weili will probably finish this fight.
As stated in the previous section, Weili has been no-so-quietly trending toward wrestling and submission upgrades given the team she's put together.
Even prior to her work with Hinger and the Hickman brothers, Zhang has always shown a propensity to look for the back in scrambles and attack opportunistic submissions.
Zhang even hinted at this with the media this week when citing Bruce Lee, saying that she intends to "fight like water" this week (which, of course, alludes to the filling of space and taking the path of least resistance).
Against a dangerous striker like Amanda Lemos, I'll bet on Zhang Weili to be like water and win by submission (+450) at UFC 292.
