Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Woo Jung Odds
The UFC 293 preliminary card concludes with light heavyweights Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Woo Jung.
New Zealand's Ulberg has put together a four-fight UFC winning streak with first-round stoppages in his three most recent bouts. He's facing an opponent in a must-win situation with Jung, who went undefeated for 15 fights before recent losses to Dustin Jacoby and Devin Clark.
Here's my look at Ulberg vs. Jung at UFC 293.
Tale of the Tape
| Ulberg | Jung | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 15-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:25 | 9:11 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 204.7 pounds | 205.3 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/7/1990 | 12/7/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 8.13 | 3.39 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 3.45 | 3.53 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 52% |
| Take Down Average | 0.92 | 2.10 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 50% |
| TD Def | 100% | 80% |
| Submission Average | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Ulberg should have a severe speed and technical advantage on the feet against Jung, who struggles with size parity at light heavyweight (aside from his quick win over Kennedy Nzechukwu) since he doesn't make the most of his length and prefers high-variance exchanges rather than point fighting.
Da-un needs to mix in his wrestling to win this bout since Ulberg should mostly have him covered on the feet. Both fighters tend to gas out when pushed hard, and the combination of question marks surrounding Ulberg's defensive grappling and cardio gives me pause.
Jung is 4-2-1 in the UFC and still on the right side of the age curve (29) for the heavier weight classes. He's far from a pushover, but his career is trending in the wrong direction.
Still, there's a chance he rights the ship and dominates Ulberg with his wrestling, as he did against William Knights (landed eight of nine takedowns, 12:04 control time), and reasserts himself within the division.
As a result, I don't want too much exposure to Ulberg – despite the projected edge; if he doesn't finish Jung in the first round, there's a chance that this fight becomes a sloppy coinflip.
Ulberg vs. Da-un Pick
As of writing, Ulberg is my most substantial projected moneyline edge for any fighter at UFC 293, and as I indicated in my UFC 293 full card write-up, I'm pairing him with Jamie Mullarkey in a parlay and would use his moneyline up to -330 (projected -339).
However, you can also place a straight bet on Ulberg to -303 (75.2% implied), at a 2% edge compared to my projection, or bet him to win by KO/TKO (projected -138, listed -125) or inside the distance (projected -162, listed -150) as alternative or additional options.
There's a chance I may add a straight bet on Ulberg, but for now, I'll take up to -130 on Ulberg's knockout prop or -150 on his finish or inside-the-distance prop.
