Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda Odds
The UFC 293 early preliminary card includes a clash of Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda.
New Zealand's Young lost his UFC debut to Alexander Volkanovski. He then won two straight. But now he's on a three-fight skid as he meets Brazil's Miranda, who suffered a rough KO defeat to Benoit Saint-Denis in his recent UFC debut.
Will Miranda bounce back as a small underdog? Or can Young right the ship while on home soil?
Let's look at Young vs. Miranda at UFC 293.
Tale of the Tape
| Young | Miranda | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-7 | 16-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:49 | 5:16 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'11" |
| Weight | 149.75 pounds | 144.95 pounds |
| Reach | 72" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/31/1993 | 3/25/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 5.24 | 3.80 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 5.51 | 7.97 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 37% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.63 | 2.85 |
| TD Acc | 18% | 33% |
| TD Def | 65% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Young was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday and came in nearly four pounds over the featherweight limit.
He'll forfeit 30% of his purse to opponent Miranda, who may look like the bigger man (three inches taller) anyway.
A bad weight cut could further dissipate Young's already suspect chin, which has seen him wobble or drop in several fights, and limit what might be his best weapon and biggest advantage over Miranda: cardio.
Young's likeliest path to victory in this matchup would come down the stretch, but a lousy weight cut could eliminate that possibility.
Miranda is the superior grappler and a relatively easy play at plus money.
Still, his moneyline price has dropped drastically since Young's weight miss, moving from an average of +130 (43.5% implied) to +115 (46.5% implied) – a 3% adjustment since weigh-ins – at the time of this writing.
Young vs. Miranda Pick
I projected Miranda around +118 and would need +125 or better to bet him (currently +125 at BetMGM and +133 at BetRivers).
However, I wouldn't go beyond that price point.
Alternatively, you could consider betting the fight to reach a decision (projected +128, listed +150 at FanDuel) or Young by decision (projected +208, listed +230 at FanDuel) after the market correction.
The Pick: Gabriel Miranda (+145, 0.5u at Caesars)
