Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj Odds
One of the more tightly-lined fights is also the pay-per-view opener at UFC 293 on Saturday as Tyson Pedro meets "The Pleasure Man" Anton Turkalj at light heavyweight.
Pedro has stoppages in all nine career victories, and Turkalj has a highlight reel full of finishes.
However, Australia's Pedro will be the overwhelming crowd favorite against Sweden's Turkalj, who looks to halt a two-fight skid.
Let's preview Pedro vs. Turkalj on the UFC 293 main card.
Tale of the Tape
| Pedro | Turkalj | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-4 | 8-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:52 | 11:29 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight | 205.45 pounds | 205.35 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/17/1991 | 6/10/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 2.96 | 1.60 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 2.49 | 2.18 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 50% |
| Take Down Average | 0.97 | 6.97 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 51% |
| TD Def | 52% | 16% |
| Submission Average | 1.0 | 0.0 |
After a couple of cake matchups and set-up finishes against Harry Hunsucker (as a -800 favorite) and Isaac Villanueva (at -625), Pedro was fraud-checked as a -250 favorite against Modestas Bukauskas in his last bout. He should have a difficult test finishing the extremely durable Anton Turkalj.
Pedro had a significant size advantage over Hunsucker and Villanueva. Still, both Bukauskaus and Turkalj present size parity, and Turkalj, in particular, will push a crazy pace (averages nearly 14 takedown attempts per 15 minutes).
Pedro might be the more skilled fighter everywhere in this matchup for the first four or five minutes. Although I don't love his striking, his leg kicks should be effective, and he may be the more skilled grappler too.
Still, Pedro has limited cardio before his effectiveness wanes, and from that point forward, Turkalj should take over.
"The Pleasure Man" gets wobbled or hurt in nearly all of his fights, but his recoverability is as good as any fighter in the sport, and he'll continue to press forward – and put a pace on Pedro until he breaks him.
Pedro vs. Turkalj Pick
I projected Turkalj as a -128 favorite in this fight and would bet his moneyline at -120 or better.
Additionally, I would add more live after Round 1; Pedro has never won a fight past the five-minute mark.
I don't see any value concerning the total or winning method props.
However, I would lean to Turkalj Round 2 and Round 3 props or a same-game parlay with Turkalj and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+195) to get on the plus-money side of things and encompass most of his win condition.
The Picks: Anton Turkalj (-107, 0.5u at BetRivers) | Anton Turkalj live after Round 1
