Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski Odds
UFC lightweight gold is on the line on Saturday afternoon in Abu Dhabi as current featherweight champion and No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter Alexander Volkvanovski will look to secure double-champ status when he rematches current No. 3 ranked pound-for-pound fighter and lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in the UFC 294 main event.
The pair fought to a highly close and competitive decision in favor of Makahachev in February at UFC 284 in front of a raucous crowd in Volkanovski's home nation of Australia.
Makhachev won a unanimous decision on the road – including a 49-46 scorecard – but six of 29 media scorecards (20.6%) and nearly 45% of fans scored the bout in favor of Volkanovski.
Regardless of the outcome, Volkanovski visually covered his pricetag (closed +280 to +300) in the first fight. Still, he has a variety of factors working against him in the rematch: arm surgery on July 18 (which required six weeks of rehab before returning to training), the short-notice booking in place of Charles Oliveira, a limited camp, and a partisan crowd for his opponent.
Still, Makhachev has moved from roughly a -360 favorite (78.2% implied) from the first bout to about -250 (71.4% implied) in the rematch.
Is that adjustment appropriate, or an overcorrection?
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the finale of the ESPN+ pay-per-view main card (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV, $79.99) and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC 294 main event between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski.
Tale of the Tape
| Makhachev | Volkanovski | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-1 | 26-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:15 | 17:14 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'6" |
| Weight | 155 pounds | 154.5 pounds |
| Reach | 70 inches | 71 inches |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/27/1991 | 9/29/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 2.35 | 6.25 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 1.27 | 3.36 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.24 | 1.86 |
| TD Acc | 62% | 37% |
| TD Def | 90% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.2 |
I covered this fight back in February and feel good about re-reading that preview – regardless of the result of the wager – because I had a firm grasp on how the fight might play.
I will compare and contrast the points I made then to my feelings heading into the rematch.
Primarily, Makhachev was much more competitive in the striking – while winning extended exchanges – than almost anyone had anticipated. I noted Makhachev's improved technique and surprising power with a standing knockdown against Charles Oliveira, but I didn't expect him to keep rounds 50/50 against Volkanovski on pure striking ability.
Makhachev was competitive on distance strikes (58-45), particularly to the head (38-37), while wobbling Volkanovski twice with a counter left.
He managed space and used his footwork exceptionally well in the standup. Makhachev deployed his body kick from a distance and pummeled Volkanovski with knees from the clinch. He was effective with his shot selection based upon the range of the fight and highly efficient with his strikes (60% landed, 59% career).
That's extra-impressive considering Volkanovski's defensive prowess (58% striking defense).
I noted Makhachev's excellent back-taking ability, which can secure entire rounds in his favor. After the fighters wobbled one another during the feeling-out process in Round 1, Makhachev found Volkanovski's back on his first entry and secured the round in his favor by advancing to a dominant position and threatening a submission.
However, as I also noted in the initial preview, I expected Volkanovski to get his reads, make his adjustments, and build into the fight. Once Volkanovski started to get a feel for Makhachev's strength and preferred grappling techniques, he had much more success defending positions and returning to his feet.
Makhachev tried to hit the same transition in Round 2 that led to the takedown in Round 1, but Volknaovski reversed that position and landed damage as the pair exited the clinch. The Aussie got the better of the striking exchanges in Round 2, but Makhachev landed his clean counters at an opportune time to steal the round.
Round 3 was a tossup for the judges, and Volkanovski continued to show improved confidence in his defensive grappling. However, he ceded a much clearer Round 4 to Makhachev, who landed the harder punches on the feet and secured more than three minutes of back control.
Makhachev won early minutes in Round 5 but eventually slowed after Vokanovski stuffed a pair of late takedown attempts. Makhachev's heavy breathing – which seemed to start near the end of Round 2 – finally caught up with him in the final minute.
He shot a sloppy takedown, got knocked down on entry, and allowed Volkankovski to finish the fight on top, landing ground and pound.
Makhachev kept the striking exchanges extremely competitive throughout. Still, Volkanovski was never truly close to getting submitted in the grappling, and he seemed to do better at resisting Makhachev's wrestling and offensive transitions the longer the fight went.
The intangible factors – Volkanovski's arm injury, his limited training camp for this fight, and the lack of home fans cheering every time he lands a strike – may matter even more than the technical aspects of this rematch.
Rewatching the first fight without sound, which filters out the bias from the home crowd, I had Makhachev winning the first four rounds, even though Volkanovski's defensive grappling improved as the fight went along.
In Abu Dhabi, I expect any close scorecards to tilt toward Makhachev.
Makhachev vs. Volkanovski Pick
As I stated earlier, Islam Makhachev has moved from roughly a -360 favorite (78.2% implied) from the first bout to about -250 (71.4% implied) in the rematch. And I think the correction is an overadjustment relative to their meeting at UFC 284.
I projected Makhachev as a 74.1% favorite (-281 implied) for the first fight, and I have him at 72.9% (-268 implied) for Saturday.
As a result, I recommended Volkanovski as the value side of the moneyline in the first fight but would instead target Makhachev at -245 or better in the rematch on Saturday.
I expect this fight to reach a decision much more frequently (34% in February; 55% now) than the first fight. A standing knockout on either seems the likeliest possibility – and while both fighters wobbled one another in the first matchup, neither was notably worse for wear.
Bet Makhachev to win by decision down to +140. I projected the line at +130.
Volkanovski is one of the best fighters in the history of the MMA, and he has made tremendous adjustments throughout his career. As a result, I'm less inclined to lay the juice on Makhachev's moneyline than I am interested in betting him to take the scorecards again, potentially with some home cooking involved.
Alternatively, consider betting the fight to reach a decision up to -110.
The Pick: Islam Makhachev wins by decision (+175 at Caesars)
