Abu Azaitar vs. Sedriques Dumas Odds
The UFC 294 preliminary card features the return of Abu Azaitar, who meets fellow middleweight Sedriques Dumas.
Azaitar hasn't won since 2018 due to losses and fight cancellations, including the original Dumas pairing earlier this year.
The 185-pounders have been rebooked and now meet on Saturday's prelims in their rescheduled clash.
Let's break down Azaitar vs Dumas at UFC 294.
Tale of the Tape
| Azaitar | Dumas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-3-1 | 8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:58 | 7:56 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'2" |
| Weight | 186 pounds | 186 pounds |
| Reach | 76 inches | 79 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/10/1986 | 8/6/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.21 | 1.64 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.35 | 1.56 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 50% |
| TD Def | 40% | 33% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Azaitar is returning to the UFC octagon after a 2.5-year layoff (last fought March 27, 2021) against a fighter nine years his junior who is both five inches taller and three inches longer.
As I mentioned earlier, younger fighters are typically undervalued in that large of an age discrepancy, never mind the other factors pointing toward Dumas in this fight.
Although his skill set is still developing, Dumas may be the superior technician across all aspects of MMA; he uses his length well in striking exchanges but showed vastly improved wrestling and grappling in his recent win over Cody Brundage.
Dumas has all the offensive grappling upside in the fight, but likely also superior cardio and durability.
Azaitar vs. Dumas Pick
It's hard to find a reason to back Azaitar, but it's also difficult to jump in fully on Dumas after his line ballooned from -170 to -250 in recent days.
The current price is much closer to correct by my estimation (projected -252). However, I like Dumas as a small parlay piece up to -250. And I'd need -230 to fire a straight bet on his moneyline.
I don't see value concerning the total or any winning method props, so we'll look for pieces to pair with Dumas or wait for his line to drop back into range.
The Pick: Use Sedriques Dumas as a Parlay Piece (up to -250)
