Javid Basharat vs Victor Henry Odds
Afghanistan's Javid Basharat is one of UFC 294's biggest favorites as he meets Victor Henry in a bantamweight bout on Saturday's preliminary card.
Basharat is 14-0 with three UFC wins, but he faces a high-risk, low-reward matchup with scrappy vet Henry on Saturday.
Let's break down Basharat vs Henry at UFC 294.
Tale of the Tape
| Basharat | Henry | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-0 | 23-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:48 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 136 pounds | 136 pounds |
| Reach | 69 inches | 68 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 9/7/1995 | 5/4/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.64 | 8.67 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.30 | 5.98 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.03 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 0% |
| TD Def | 85% | 79% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.7 |
After a long career on the regional scene, Henry entered the UFC with a short-notice upset (as high as +425) against Raoni Barcelos, dropped his subsequent bout while taking a step up in competition as a -440 favorite against Raphael Assuncao, and took a split decision over Tont Gravely as a -150 favorite in March.
Henry enters Saturday's card as the most significant underdog among all 13 fights, but in a bout favored more heavily than the rest (-225) to reach a decision.
And on that factor alone, he's potentially worth an underdog flier.
The striking exchanges should be highly competitive if not potentially favor Henry, who is extremely active at range (18.4 significant strike attempts per minute in his UFC debut).
He's also a strong defensive wrestler and counter-grappler who allowed just six takedowns on 29 attempts against a trio of solid wrestlers – while spending 7.5 minutes across 45 total minutes (17%) in the octagon getting controlled.
Basharat won't shoot 17 takedowns like Gravely. He's probably good for six to 10 at most across a 15-minute fight.
And while Basharat is an excellent scrambler, I don't trust his ability to keep Henry down and hold him in dominant positions for significant stretches of the fight.
As a result, Henry should be able to deny some takedowns – and return to his feet in relatively short order after others – and resume attempting to outpace Basharat on the feet.
Basharat vs Henry Pick
Ultimately, Basharat's speed and movement, in addition to whatever grappling success he might have, may prove the difference and see him get his hand raised after a close and competitive scrap.
Henry may ultimately prove to be a value trap at his pricing in Abu Dhabi, but I do think you can justify a bet on his side; the fight should play out much closer than his price tag suggests.
Additionally, I like the fight to reach a decision nearly 75% of the time – even higher than the betting market – and would either bet that prop to -255 or use it as a parlay piece.
And I'll consider betting Henry to +400, but I'd instead load up on the fight to go longer than watch him get screwed by some unfavorable judging.
The Picks:
- Fight Goes to Decision (-225, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Victor Henry (+430, 0.1u) at Caesars
