UFC 294 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker: Big Underdog Worth Betting? (Saturday, October 21)

Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker Odds

Magomed Ankalaev is making his 2023 debut after a split draw this past December cost him his chance at the light heavyweight title.

That fight was elevated to title status on short notice due to an injury to then-champion Jiri Prozchaka, but it resulted in an anticlimactic ending.

Across from him on Saturday afternoon at UFC 294 stands a resurgent Johnny Walker, who went 1-4 from 2019 through early 2022 – but who's since picked up three straight wins.

Depending on the availability of recently vacated champion Jamahal Hill, the winner of this one could get the next shot at the light heavyweight title that's up for grabs at UFC 296.

Ankalaev is a heavy favorite to earn his way back to another shot, but Walker has made massive strides over his recent fights. Will it be enough to pull off the upset on enemy soil at UFC 294, or does Ankalaev hold serve?

Tale of the Tape

A fighter named Magomed fighting out of Dagestan while sporting a full beard with no mustache certainly seems like the prototypical all-grappling build. While Ankalaev certainly can wrestle, it's clearly the Plan B from Ankalaev.

Even when Ankalaev does, he's not much of a submission threat, and he has just one career win via tap-out.

He's primarily leaned on his wrestling late in fights, or when he's clipped on the feet. A true counter-puncher, Ankalaev likes to stay just inside his opponent's danger zone, baiting him to over-extend on strikes that he responds to violently.

Ankalaev typically throws single shots, but he has solid kicks and a quick jab that comes from all angles.

While he's listed as an orthodox fighter, Ankalaev typically begins fights as a southpaw, switching stances only to "mirror" his opponents when they go southpaw. Despite his insistence on keeping an opposite stance, he's fairly lackluster at winning the lead-foot battle.

This was evident in his bout with Jan Blachowicz, who consistently kept his lead foot to the outside and while brutalizing Ankalaev's lead leg with kicks.

Which eventually caused Ankalaev to lean on his grappling, with which he pulled away late into the fight. He was able to take down Blachowicz fairly easily late in the bout with a smothering top game that left no room for escape.

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Other fighters have had more success in escaping back to their feet, though, with Blachowicz totally gassed by the end of their unplanned five-round fight.

This one is just three rounds, which should favor Walker to an extent.

The tallest and longest active light heavyweight following the departure of Jon Jones, Walker is an explosive striker with a somewhat questionable gas tank. He keeps opponents at bay on the feet with kicks from range, and he found success landing leg kicks on the southpaw Hill.

The fight against Hill was a good microcosm of Walker's game. He was probably winning the fight from the outside behind kicks and jabs while controlling the lead-foot battle. Then, he got suckered into a brawl by the superior boxer, and he found himself looking up at the UFC Apex lights.

That was his last loss, and he's been much better at staying away from his opponents' strengths since then.

Walker defended the desperate takedown attempts by Paul Craig, finishing him with strikes without engaging on the ground. Against Ion Cutelaba, he was able to reverse position on the ground, and he used his superior jiu-jitsu to force a submission.

Walker's a brown belt with an underrated submission game that could potentially keep Ankalaev uncomfortable on the ground.

The zenith of Walker's growth was against Anthony Smith, against whom he took a far more patient approach. He maintained the range perfectly, slipping just out of range of Smith's punches while answering with leg kicks and straight shots of his own en route to a unanimous-decision victory that Smith was fortunate to survive to the final bell.

Ankalaev vs. Walker Pick

While there are reasonable questions to be raised about the win over Smith – who might just be washed at this point – the version of Walker we saw in that fight has no business being +285 in this spot.

He excels in the area – leg kicks – that have been the big weakness for Ankalaev. His massive reach edge also throws a wrench in the plans of Ankalaev.

Ankalaev's typical approach is to step just inside of his opponent's range to draw out counter-striking opportunities. Trying that against a fighter with seven inches in reach is much more difficult since getting close enough to counter means wading through a fairly long danger zone.

Ankalaev justifies his favoritism here with his wrestling threat, but it's hard to see that being worth the current line. While he's likely to get the benefit of the doubt from the judges in Abu Dhabi, empty top control against a dangerous grappler like Walker shouldn't equate to winning rounds, at least in theory.

I also have some faith in the jiu-jitsu game of Walker that's shown massive improvements in recent fights. His ability to reverse position and threaten with submissions is enough to prevent taking damage on the ground even without "winning" the grappling exchanges.

With a ton of wide lines on the UFC 294 card, we'll probably see at least one or two underdogs pull off the upset. I'm taking a sprinkle on Walker – which is +285 as of this writing – as one of them, and I'd bet his moneyline down to +235

The Pick: Johnny Walker (+285 at DraftKings)