Mike Breeden vs. Anshul Jubli Odds
Mike Breeden gets a fourth shot at a first UFC win when he meets India's Anshul Jubli on Saturday's UFC 294 preliminary card.
Breeden is the clear underdog as he takes on Road to the UFC tournament winner Jubli, who stopped Jeka Saragih in his official UFC debut earlier this year.
Can Breeden finally get it done, or is Jubli poised for his biggest win yet?
Let's preview Breeden vs Jubli at UFC 294.
Tale of the Tape
| Breeden | Jubli | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-6 | 7-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:11 | 11:52 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Weight | 159.5 pounds | 155.5 pounds |
| Reach | 70 inches | 69 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 4/21/1989 | 1/13/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.22 | 5.69 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 7.02 | 4.80 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 33% |
| TD Def | 62% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Jubli will look to stay undefeated on Saturday as a significant favorite against an opponent with actual UFC experience after closing as high as +145 in the semifinals (a narrow split decision) and +135 in the final of the Road to UFC lightweight tournament.
Jubli applies a ton of pressure and seemingly has good durability and cardio.
Still, his skill set as a martial artist is extremely raw, and it isn't easy to imagine him making significant improvements as a fighter while working with lower-level training partners.
That's not to say that Breeden is working out of American Top Team or Xtreme Couture. Still, the Kansas native has had an unflattering UFC run due to a pair of opponents – Terrance McKinney and Alexander Hernandez – who met their typical early win condition.
Breeden excels at surviving and working his way back into his fights. His back-and-forth bout with Natan Levy, in which Breeden outpaced his opponent 71-46 in the third round after taking a beating, indicates his ability to compete at this level.
Breeden vs. Jubli Pick
Even in losses, Breeden has proven himself against a far higher level of competition than anything Jubli has faced.
If Jubli covers his moneyline, he must finish Breeden in Round 1. However, I expect the American to win this fight about 35% of the time. You can fire on Breeden small pre-fight and look to add more live after five minutes.
Additionally, or alternatively, consider betting on Breeden to win in Round 2 (+1300), Round 3 (+1800), or by decision (projected +477, listed +650). Or bet Breeden in a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with the Over 1.5 Rounds at +380.
Breeden's win condition should be weighted more heavily toward the fight's second half.
The Picks:
- Mike Breeden (+230, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- Mike Breeden Live after Round 1
