Mohammad Yahya vs Trevor Peek Odds
| Yahya Odds | +155 |
| Peek Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-105 / -125) |
| Location | Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Saturday and via Caesars. Bet on UFC 294 with our Caesars Sportsbook bonus code. | |
Amid a slew of long odds, there's one bout on Saturday's UFC 294 fight card that caught my attention due to the (relatively) tight line.
That's the fight between home-grown United Arab Emirates prospect Mohammad Yahya and Alabama's favorite brawler, Trevor Peek.
We've already seen very significant line movement here with Peek opening as a moderate underdog but since flipping to become a favorite.
Let's see if that movement is justified and try to find some alternative angles to play rather than get the worst of the odds if so.
Tale of the Tape
| Yahya | Peek | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-3 | 8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | n/a | 9:12 |
| Height | n/a | 5'9" |
| Weight | 156 pounds | 155.5 pounds |
| Reach | n/a | 70 inches |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 5/23/1994 | 1/9/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | n/a | 5.65 |
| SS Accuracy | n/a | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | n/a | 5.18 |
| SS Defense | n/a | 40% |
| Take Down Average | n/a | 0.54 |
| TD Acc | n/a | 33% |
| TD Def | n/a | 53% |
| Submission Average | n/a | 0.0 |
It's always nice when a prospect enters the UFC with plenty of tape available from previous fights.
After a 1-1 stint in Bellator, Yahya has fought his last eight bouts for the UAE Warriors promotion, where he became lightweight champion and went 7-1 in that time span. The majority of those fights were streamed on UFC Fight Pass, so it was easy to get a long look at his style.
Primarily a striker, Yahya is a somewhat small lightweight who prefers to counter-strike from the outside. In both of his title defenses, he spent the bulk of the early rounds backpedaling, trying to draw his opponents out for sharp counters.
Yahya executed that strategy with mixed results, landing some powerful shots of his own, but also getting wobbled and/or dropped in each of the fights.
Deeper into the bouts, he started to become more aggressive, taking the fight to his opponents and relying on his excellent cardio to outpace his rapidly tiring foes. One advantage of being on the smaller side for the weight class from a muscular standpoint is less wear on the gas tank, and he used that in both fights as they made it into the fifth round.
It's hard to get a read on Yahya's grappling abilities. In his first title defense, he was largely able to control the fight on the ground and picked up takedowns in the later rounds.
However, he struggled in the early goings against an opponent who took the fight on short notice, so it's likely that he wasn't the better grappler as much as the fresher fighter.
In his most recent bout, he looked lost on the ground for long stretches. He was stuck on his back in the early rounds, and even when he was able to get top position in the later rounds, he eventually surrendered the position when faced with submission threats.
Peek, meanwhile, is what would happen if you asked AI to "make Bryce Mitchell, but a striker instead of a grappler."
TREVOR PEEK DID THAT IN HIS DEBUT 😳 #UFCVegas70pic.twitter.com/sGOQox82f4
— UFC (@ufc) February 25, 2023
An absolutely wild brawler, he throws strikes I've never seen outside of middle school cafeterias, including standing hammer fists from all conceivable angles.
Charging forward at every available opportunity, Peek's wild strikes disguise a surprisingly effective kicking game, especially to the legs.
Peek throws every strike like it's his last, from leg kicks to lunging hammer strikes. While the same height as Yahya, I'd guess he'll be about 10 pounds heavier come fight time with a significant strength and power edge.
On the ground, Peek is a master of "Derrick Lewis Jitsu," abandoning all technique and using his superior strength to just stand up. It's a surprisingly effective strategy – but one that comes at a cost in terms of cardio.
After finishing the first eight fights of his career, Peek was dominated in the third round of his loss to Chepe Mariscal in June.
Yahya vs. Peek Pick
This will be an interesting fight on the feet with Mariscal doing exactly what Yahya wants him to by rushing forward – but likely finding success anyway.
Yahya has consistently started slow in his last few fights, which isn't great against a striker like Peek who will be at full speed from the opening bell. Yahya's tendency to get clipped early on has largely gone unpunished, but he hasn't been hit by anyone like Peek.
With that said, Yahya is pretty clearly the more skilled fighter overall and with a massive edge in cardio. Should he survive the opening six or so minutes, he'll pull away fairly quickly with his wrestling and cleaner striking techniques.
As mentioned above, this line has flipped in the past few days from Peek at around +160 to Peek as long as -166 on some books, as of this writing on Wednesday. That makes sense, as the likeliest outcome here is probably Peek catching Yahya in the early goings of this fight and putting him away.
However, I'd rather not bet into a line with all the value gone, especially when each fighter has a fairly narrow path to victory.
Instead, I'm taking Peek to win this one in the early goings – either by taking Peek and under 1.5 rounds in a same game parlay on DraftKings (possibly adding "by knockout" if it moves the line much) or Peek in Rounds 1/2 on FanDuel, depending on the line.
Then, we'll hedge that position with the inverse, either Yahya and the over or Yahya in Round 3/decision – or by simply betting Yahya live if the line gets out of hand following an early rush.
The live angle is my favorite, but if unable or unwilling to bet this as it happens, I'd be fine with one of the other angles.
The Lean: Some combination of Peek early and Yahya late
