Nathaniel Wood vs Muhammad Naimov Odds
In an intriguing featherweight clash on the UFC 294 preliminary card, Nathaniel Wood looks to keep the good times going when he meets Muhammad Naimov.
Wood is 3-0 in the UFC since a multi-year layoff and a drop to 145 pounds. The Englishman now meets Tajikistan's Naimov, who knocked out lightweight Jamie Mullarkey in his recent UFC debut.
Oddsmakers favor the more experienced fighter and have Wood as a heavy favorite in the prelim bout. Is it warranted?
Here's my Wood vs Naimov preview for UFC 294.
Tale of the Tape
| Wood | Naimov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-5 | 9-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:44 | 11:30 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 146 pounds | 145.5 pounds |
| Reach | 69 inches | 70 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/8/1983 | 8/7/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.24 | 3.48 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.35 | 5.53 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.70 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 0% |
| TD Def | 76% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.0 |
On average, featherweight bouts at the UFC level go to a decision at a 54.8% clip (-121 implied odds), roughly in line with the best available odds (-122) for Saturday's clash between Wood and Naimov.
Wood, a former bantamweight, is extremely quick and technical but carries only a little power in his hands. And Naimov has never been finished across 16 amateur and professional bouts.
Naimov – the true featherweight with advantages in height (three inches taller), reach (one inch) and power – seems the likelier of the pair to finish this fight via strikes.
Wood is an incredibly well-rounded fighter, but he does tend to get cracked and wobble a couple of times per fight, leading to opportunities for his opponents to finish or swinging the round optics against himself for scoring purposes.
Wood vs Naimov Pick
I expect this bout to reach a decision more than 60% of the time (projected -157) and would bet that prop up to -145.
I also expect Wood to win that decision more often than not and projected his decision prop at +103 (listed +120 at FanDuel). Consider including the plus-money prop on round-robin tickets.
I prefer to bet the fight to reach a decision – rather than betting on Wood to win that decision – because Naimov could swing a fight that Wood is otherwise winning back in his favor on a couple of brief moments.
He could do that by wobbling Wood and landing the most impactful shot in two of the three rounds, thereby erasing most of Wood's minute-winning.
From a moneyline perspective, this is a 'dog-or-pass spot with Naimov (projected +239, listed +270 at BetMGM), but I would rather bet him to survive and keep this fight close and competitive for the duration.
