UFC 294 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov: A Worthy Parlay Piece (Saturday, October 21)

UFC 294 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov: A Worthy Parlay Piece (Saturday, October 21) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC bantamweight Said Nurmagomedov of Russia

Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov Odds

Nurmagomedov Odds
-290
Gafurov Odds
+235
Over/Under
2.5 (-125 / -105)
Location
Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
Time
2 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN+ PPV
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 294 with our DraftKings promo code

The UFC 294 pay-per-view main card kicks off on Saturday afternoon with bantamweights Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov.

On a fight card full of mismatches, this one is actually somewhat competitive with Nurmagomedov, who's looking to rebound from a recent loss to Jonathan Martinez, a moderate favorite over Gafurov.

Gafurov has fallen short in a UFC fight and a Contender Series bout, but he could gain some traction with a victory over Nurmagomedov if he can finally break through on Saturday.

Here's my look at Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov at UFC 294.

Tale of the Tape

NurmagomedovGafurov
Record17-318-5
Avg. Fight Time9:0715:00
Height5'8"5'7"
Weight136 pounds135.5 pounds
Reach (inches)70"68"
StanceOrthodoxSouthpaw
Date of birth4/5/19925/17/1996
Sig Strikes Per Minute3.543.07
SS Accuracy47%41%
SS Absorbed Per Minute2.152.90
SS Defense56%47%
Take Down Avg1.032.50
TD Acc16%27%
TD Def65%62%
Submission Avg1.20.0

I have generally – and unsuccessfully – bet against Said Nurmagomedov (unrelated to Khabib) at the UFC level, viewing him as a relatively low-volume striker with minimal offensive wrestling enthusiasm.

However, I like him in this fight against Gafurov and project Nurmagomedov as the most significant moneyline edge – relative to the betting market – of any fighter on the card.

His controversial loss to Jonathan Martinez has aged well; Nurmagomedov won the distance striking (31-22), landed three takedowns, and had a pair of submission attempts. More than 70% of fans and 60% of media scorecards scored the bout for the Russian.

UFC 294 Odds: Our 6 Best Bets for Afternoon Pay-Per-View in Abu Dhabi Image

Nurmagomedov has an elite guillotine choke, which he can sink in against overly enthusiastic grapplers. Even if he doesn't get it on the first attempt, Nurmagomedov will keep adjusting until he finds a way to cinch up that choke; I'm highly impressed by his mastery of the technique.

Unless Gafurov can successfully wrestle Nurmagomedov for three rounds without getting his head stuck in that guillotine – and that seems unlikely, given his substandard cardio and 1-5 record in decisions – I have difficulty seeing him winning consistent minutes in this matchup.

Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov Pick

Gafurov will have moments in the striking and potentially land takedowns, too.

Still, Nurmagomedov should land significantly more damage on the feet and seems more likely to keep his game coherent for a 15-minute fight.

Neither fighter has lost inside the distance in their professional careers, but Nurmagomedov seemingly has the better hardware. Gafurov has suffered a knockdown in consecutive bouts under the UFC banner.

Bet Nurmagomedov up to -260, or include him in a parlay up to -275.

The Pick:

  • Said Nurmagomedov (-225, 0.25u) at DraftKings
  • Parlay (+102, 0.5u) at FanDuel: Said Nurmagomedov (-225) & Islam Makahchev (-250)
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About the Author
Sean is a Senior Writer at The Action Network and a lawyer in the state of New York. He primarily covers baseball, synthesizing advanced metrics with traditional scouting techniques, and believes that Bartolo Colón's home run was the single greatest athletic achievement of our time.

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