Victoria Dudakova vs Jinh Yu Frey Odds
UFC 294 offers a number of young upstarts a chance to steal some shine from their veteran counterparts, and that's what we're getting with Viktoria Dudakova vs Jinh Yu Frey on the preliminary card.
Dudakova, fresh off an injury-enabled 34-second win on Contender Series, is a major favorite over fellow strawweight Frey, who's stuck in a three-fight skid.
Are those long odds justified? Let's look at Dudakova vs Frey at UFC 294.
Tale of the Tape
| Dudakova | Frey | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-0 | 11-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:47 | 12:36 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'3" |
| Weight | 116.6 pounds | 116 pounds |
| Reach | 67 inches | 65 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/26/1999 | 5/20/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.41 | 2.95 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.80 | 4.11 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.82 | 1.02 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 37% |
| TD Def | 0% | 89% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.3 |
The only women's bout on Saturday's card features one of the most significant age discrepancies (14 years) that I have seen between UFC opponents.
As I regularly discuss, when UFC opponents have at least a seven-year age gap, the betting market tends to undervalue the younger fighter by more than 10%, winning at a 67.4% clip compared to average odds of -119, or 54.4% implied.
And when there is at least a decade in age between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 72.2% of the time, at average odds of -143 (58.8% implied)
In addition to being younger, faster, and a better athlete, Victoria Dudakova is taller and longer (a two-inch advantage in both height and reach) than Jinh Yu Frey, who is more of a natural atomweight.
Dudakova vs Frey Pick
Frey can win the fight by denying takedown attempts and landing clean counters with her powerful left hand.
Still, Dudakova should overwhelm Frey with physicality, and I expect her to add a highlight to her reel in a fight in which she is the apparent "A side."
You can include Dudakova in parlays (up to -550) but also bet her to win inside the distance or by finish (projected +133, listed +150 at DraftKings).
The Picks:
- Victoria Dudakova wins Inside the Distance (+150, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Parlay (+138, 0.5u) at FanDuel: Victoria Dudakova (-520) & Sedriques Dumas (-250) & Henry/Basharat, Fight Goes to Decision (-235)
