Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC 294 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday afternoon's pay-per-view event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +23.4 units and an +8.9% ROI per bet to date.
This week features a full squad with Tony Sartori, Liam Heslin, Clint MacLean. Billy Ward, Dan Tom, Sean Zerillo and Bryan Fonseca.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which streams on ESPN+ PPV from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, below. UFC 294 kicks off at an early start time of 10 a.m. ET (7 p.m. PT) with the main card starting at 2 p.m. ET.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Tony Sartori: Victoria Dudakova by Submission (+400)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 a.m. ET
On the early portion of the UFC 294 prelims, Victoria Dudakova takes on Jinh Yu Frey in a strawweight bout.
It is worth noting that Dudakova came in 0.6 pounds heavy at the weigh-ins, but the fight will continue regardless, and that will either be a non-factor or even slightly benefit Dudakova (0.6 pounds, in my opinion, is a non-factor).
With that said, I locked in Dudakova to win by submission at +420 via FanDuel prior to that anyway, and I still like the bet at the current odds of +400.
Entering this matchup with a spotless 7-0 professional record, Dudakova is capable of beating opposing fighters by any method.
She is an incredible athlete and has a kickboxing base, but most of her success during her MMA journey has been on the mat. She will shoot for takedowns and rack up control time and has no issues with coasting to a dominating unanimous decision victory.
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But, Dudakova has a propensity to find the neck, which is always a stronger possibility when a fight takes place on the mat versus on the feet. Out of her seven professional wins, four have come via submission.
Based on Dudakova's well-rounded skill set, I truly believe she has the potential to be a UFC champion with the proper development.
With all due respect, the UFC is giving her a bit of a lay-up here. Frey enters this bout amid a three-fight losing skid and has now lost six of her past nine professional bouts.
The reason we are catching Dudakova's submission prop at 4/1 in this spot is that Frey has been submitted only once in her career and possesses good takedown defense. However, she was taken down once by Vanessa Demopoulos and was controlled for more than four minutes in that fight.
If Dudakova has Frey on the mat for a 3+ minute stretch, a submission will certainly be possible, making +400 a number worth taking a shot on.
The Picks: Victoria Dudakova by Submission (+400 at BetRivers)
Liam Heslin: Muhammad Naimov by Finish (+500) | Naimov by KO (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 a.m. ET
To begin, I think the moneyline is wide for this fight, and therein lies the value on this Prop Squad pick for Nathaniel Wood vs Muhammad Naimov.
Naimov trains with high-level fighters like Cory Sandhagen and Justin Gaethje in Colorado, and he is a capable power puncher with five wins via KO and two wins via submission in nine career victories (77.8% finish rate).
Nathaniel Wood began his career at bantamweight and has recently rattled off three competitive decision victories in the featherweight division. Less than three months ago, he was dropped twice (once officially, twice by my count) by Andre Fili in a back-and-forth war.
Now he is set to take on Naimov in enemy territory. Naimov asked for a fight in Abu Dhabi after Dana White gave him a $50,000 performance bonus for his knockout of Jamie Mullarkey up a weight class at 155 pounds on short notice.
Now Naimov has a full camp and an opponent with four of five (80%) career losses inside the distance.
I think the UFC would love to see their new Tajikistan fighter shock the world with another thunderous KO upset early on the card. The KO is the best path for Naimov, but Wood has two losses via submission, and a club-and-sub opportunity could present itself.
So, I'm going to split my Prop Squad pick and take Naimov to win by finish and by KO.
The Pick: Muhammad Naimov by finish (+500 at FanDuel) | Naimov by KO (+650 at bet365)
Clint MacLean: Sedrique Dumas by KO in Rounds 2-3 (+550)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 a.m. ET
The UFC is positioning Sedrique Dumas for success. This kid is an extremely athletic fighter with a great build for the weight class and just needs to harness his raw abilities to potentially be another big success from the Contender Series feeder system.
Dumas had a rough start in the UFC, but even from his first fight to his second, we saw big leaps in his overall MMA game.
Now the UFC is putting him on a major pay-per-view fight card facing an older fighter with a poor resume and limited skill set.
Dumas just needs to wait out the gas tank of Abu Azaitar, and he will be easy pickings for the straight shots and head kicks that Dumas brings to the table.
I expect Dumas to finish Azaitar after he slows down, but I believe that we can count on him to survive the first round.
Billy Ward: Mohammad Yahya in Round 3/Decision (+400)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:55 p.m. ET
I see the UFC 294 preliminary bout between Trevor Peek and Mohammad Yahya going one of two ways.
Either Peek’s wild brawling leads to a fairly early stoppage for the American, or Yahya takes over down the stretch with his superior technique and grappling.
That’s been the case in every one of Peek’s professional fights. He’s 8-1 with each of his wins settling in less than eight minutes, and his lone loss lasting all 15 minutes.
That’s not a fluke due to the level of competition either. Peek is an extremely strong, muscular lightweight who throws every strike at 100%.
That’s a combination that drains the gas tank quickly. Even his grappling is energy-intensive as he eschews technique in favor of brute strength in powering his way out from the bottom.
Which is the exact opposite style that Yahya brings to the table. Yahya’s last three fights have been scheduled for 25 minutes, with the last two making it into the fifth round. He’s a slow starter who was clipped early in multiple fights, but he takes over down the stretch.
From his regional tape, he appears to have a desire to trade strikes when it’s working, utilizing his length to counter-strike from range. However, he’s a willing and able wrestler when he needs it, outpacing his fatiguing opponents in grappling exchanges.
If he’s able to survive the opening six or seven minutes against Yahya, he’ll be able to take over with his cleaner strikes and takedowns down the stretch.
Another way to play this one is by betting on Yahya live, assuming we get a better price following the first round.
I’m hedging this pick with a parlay of Peek & Under 1.5 at plus-money, but I will be rooting for the (somewhat) long-shot Yahya play to win instead.
Dan Tom: Muhammad Mokaev in Round 3 (+900)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:25 p.m. ET
For this week's Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a round prop with some potential in the featured prelim between Muhammad Mokaev and Tim Elliott.
Despite the moneyline on Mokaev being a bit too wide for my tastes, I still see some tangible angles to attack if you're looking to get involved with the favorite.
Elliott may be a live underdog according to the odds, but Mokaev presents a tricky stylistic hurdle that's traditionally been difficult for the American to clear: a comparable wrestler with a slick submission prowess.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Elliot get off to a great start that has Mokaev backers sweating; I'm just not so sure that the 36-year-old flyweight can keep pace like he used to.
Add in the fact that almost half of Mokaev's finishes come in the third round, and I can't help but take a flier on the Dagestani fighter to close the show late.
The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev in Round 3 (+900 at Caesars)
Sean Zerillo: Ikram Aliskerov in Round 2 (+450) | Aliskerov in Round 3 (+1100)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:25 p.m. ET
Ikram Aliskerov takes on short-notice replacement Warrley Alves on Saturday's UFC 294 main card.
Alves, a true welterweight, is moving up a division in place of Nassourdine Imavov, and perhaps cutting less weight will help his cardio.
Alves is typically a problem for opponents in the first round before fading drastically when his opponents turn the tide. Three of his past four losses have come in Round 2.
While Alves typically has strong takedown defense and carries power in his hands, I wonder if those attributes will translate as well with the 15-pound jump from welterweight to middleweight, as it might go from 135 to 145. He's also at a four-inch reach disadvantage.
Alves may be the faster man early, but as that gap closes when he tires in the second round, Aliskerov should start to take over and eventually put him away.
For my Prop Squad pick, I'm going to split my bet. I'll take Aliserov to win in Round 2 (+450) and in Round 3 (+1100), down to +300 and +900, respectively.
The cardio dynamic in almost any Alves fight makes his opponent's late-round props appealing.
The Pick: Ikram Aliskerov in Round 2 (+450 at DraftKings) | Aliskerov in Round 3 (+1100 at DraftKings)
Bryan Fonseca: Alexander Volkanovski by KO (+550)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:55 p.m. ET
When you get knocked out, you can improve.
You adjust, develop your skills, refine your head movement, strengthen your defense, and in mixed martial arts, you could elevate your ground game to avoid having fights in a standing position to begin with, if you're so inclined.
That's what Islam Makhachev has essentially done since suffering his one and only loss in MMA: a one-shot KO by Adriano Martins, who has gone 0-5 since. Makhachev over-committed on an overhand left and met a forthcoming overhand right, dropping him immediately and ending the fight.
Since then, Makhachev has gone 12-0, winning all but two fights by submission or decision.
Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski is in the undesirable position of being the naturally smaller man whose advantage is on the feet, not the ground. That said, in their first fight in February – in which Volkanovski left many believing he could've gone home with the decision – his success was primarily when he was able to create the boxing match he wanted.
At 5-foot-6, Volk uniquely has a 71-inch reach, edging out the 5-foot-10 Makhachev, who has a 70-inch reach. And he was able to find success because after being outmuscled in early rounds, he made adjustments on the fly to fight at his own pace.
Volkanovski got to his lead hand effectively, level changed between his right hook to the body and left hook to the head combinations, mixed in the requisite leg kicks to expand on his level changes, and had good enough takedown defense to keep Makhachev from outright dominating.
Makhachev held up well on the feet, and I thought edging out the decision was fair, but I'll sprinkle on Volkanovski making the adjustment to accentuate what he did well to force Makhachev into a fight he doesn't want to fight. And when that happens, you open yourself up to getting caught.
The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski by KO (+500 at DraftKings)
