UFC 295 Odds: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for All 13 Fights (Saturday, November 11)

The UFC 295 odds board for Saturday's pay-per-view event features 13 fights, including a pair of title bouts atop the card.

Below, I've made my UFC 295 picks and have put together all 13 fight breakdowns for the tonight's event at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

The UFC 295 preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET for additional prelims. The main card then kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV ($79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights on the UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 295 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Maximize your UFC 295 action with our DraftKings promo code!

UFC 295 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 295 Odds

Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers

Crowdsourced Projections: Jamall Emmers (72%)

Depending upon the book (-250 at BetMGM), I project slight value on Jamall Emmers in the first prelim bout on Saturday's UFC 295 fight card. He's the taller and longer fighter (four-inch reach advantage), has faced a higher level of opponents, and seemingly has the striking and grappling advantage in his matchup against the locally trained Dennis Buzukja.

Still, the otherwise well-rounded Emmers is prone to fight-IQ mistakes and often fails to take the path of least resistance against one-dimensional opponents, and both his athleticism and overall game seem somewhat diminished after returning from an August 2021 knee injury.

Buzukja is the younger fighter – and as I regularly mention, when there's at least a seven-year age gap between UFC combatants, the younger fighter wins 67.3% of the time at average odds of -119, or 54.3% implied. He likely has the cardio advantage and can turn a close fight in his direction with a home crowd behind him.

Buzukja is the more enthusiastic opponent of the two, and he is likely to continue pushing forward as both fighters tire down the stretch. And with Emmers less committed to wrestling since that injury, we could see a close, 15-minute striking fight with slight separation on optics.

As a rule, I try to avoid betting big favorites when the fight is likely to reach a decision, and I expect this fight to go the full 15 minutes more than 70% of the time (projected -242), more frequently than the oddsmakers.

As a result, I'd rather lay juice on the Over 2.5 Rounds (-240) or bet the Fight to Reach a Decision (-192) than bet on Emmers to win by decision (projected -117, listed +100), only to watch him get robbed in another close fight.

Although I'm not yet ready to commit, I'd consider betting Buzukja live after Round 1 depending upon the early pace and Emmers' commitment to proactively wrestling. Emmers also missed weight on Friday, which could further deplete his gas tank in the third round.

Additionally, I'd look at the fight to end by split decision, or either fighter to win by split.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-192, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Dennis Buzukja Live after Round 1

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Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas

Crowdsourced Projections: Joshua Van (67.6%)

A then-21-year-old Joshua Van impressed as a short-notice underdog in his UFC debut in June, upsetting the much more experienced Zhalgas Zhumagulov. In his sophomore outing, he'll draw Kevin Borjas, who earned a contract on Contender Series in August.

Both flyweights prefer to strike, but Borjas has a three-inch reach advantage, which could prove crucial in the exchanges.

Van is the better grappler and can likely swing close striking rounds by landing takedowns and generating control time.

Both fighters have good cardio and durability. Even though we could see high-volume striking in this matchup, the likeliest path to a finish is probably Van via submission; both fighters have one professional loss, each via rear-naked choke (Borjas also has a pair of amateur losses by submission).

If Borjas can keep the fight standing, he can pull the upset. He also typically starts faster than Van, who prefers to make his reads and build his pace as the fight drags on.

And I like this fight to go longer, projecting the bout to reach a decision 53% of the time, slightly below the divisional average (54.2%). Bet that prop to -108, or play the Over 2.5 Rounds to -125.

Alternatively, or in addition, I like Van to win by decision (projected +169, listed +260). However, I do prefer the total.

Lastly, fire on Van if he loses Round 1.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (+124, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Joshua Van Live after Round 1

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John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Crowdsourced Projections: John Castaneda (61.7%)

Kyung Ho Kang is both the taller (three inches) and longer fighter (two inches) in a striking matchup against John Castaneda, who is four years his junior and has better cardio.

Castaneda will apply pressure throughout while avoiding getting clipped by Kang, who also has the power advantage and higher finishing upside.

Still, Kang typically excels when he can control opponents and blanket them for extended stretches or look to take their back rather than counter-striking for 15 minutes. Castaneda will keep him on the back foot and make him uncomfortable with different looks as he retreats. And the aggressor should provide superior optics for the judges down the stretch.

I'd expect Kang to do his best work early before Castaneda's pressure eventually wears him down and the fight's momentum swings toward "Sexi Mexi" – as it did in his win over Miles Johns.

Depending upon the book, I like Castaneda on the moneyline (up to -148), the Fight to Go the Distance (up to -160), in addition to Castaneda to win by decision (projected +149) as a round-robin piece.

And look to add more to Castaenda's moneyline live after Round 1.

Bets

• John Castaneda (-130, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Fight Goes to Decision (-154, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• John Castaneda Live after Round 1

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Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen

Crowdsourced Projections: Jared Gordon (71.8%)

I projected Jared Gordon closer to -250 in his matchup with Mark Madsen, and the Queens native is my favorite bet on Saturday's card (up to -235).

While Madsen has a four-inch reach advantage and is the more credentialed wrestler, Gordon is all wrong for him, stylistically.

Madsen may land takedowns early, but Gordon is the superior grappler and jiu-jitsu player once the fight hits the mat, and he should be able to scramble up from those positions or potentially hit reversals and put Madsen on his back.

Gordon's American wrestling style works better for MMA than Madsen's Greco-Roman and upper-body takedowns, and he's also the superior striker once he figures out how to navigate the reach discrepancy.

Most importantly, Gordon is four years younger and has the better gas tank in this matchup; Madsen should do his best work early, but once Gordon settles into the fight, denies a takedown, and finds the range with his left hook, the momentum should fully swing in his direction.

As a result, bet Gordon pre-fight and look to add more live after Round 1 at an even better number.

As Madsen's effectiveness wanes, Gordon should win the second and third rounds at increasingly higher percentages. I'd consider betting on Gordon to win the fight later – in Round 2 (+1000), Round 3 (+1400), or by decision (projected -102, listed +125). Gordon to win in Round 3 or by decision (-125) also has appeal.

Bets

• Jared Gordon (-210, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Jared Gordon Live after Round 1

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Crowdsourced Projections: Nazim Sadykhov (53.3%) 

While I lean toward the underdog, Viacheslav Borshchev, in this lightweight bout, I would wait for something closer to +125 (currently +120 at Caesars) to bet on "Slava Claus."

He is a better striker than Nazim Sadykhov and the vastly superior boxer in this matchup, but he has shown porous takedown defense (35%) against similarly skilled opponents.

While Borschev has also shown improved scrambling in recent fights – you don't get taken down 20 times in consecutive bouts without getting up a whole bunch, too – all of that grappling does tire him out, leaving him gassed in the third round.

Borschev is also much more of a technical striker and attritional finisher – one who excels at hitting the body rather than putting away opponents with a singular strike. As a result, he may struggle to break Sadykov's pressure and fight in much tighter positions than the distance striking he desires.

And if his opponent doesn't oblige his range, it's difficult for Borshchev to find the fluidity of his striking game.

Sadykhov's record is a bit sketchy; he was losing minutes to Evan Elder until a third-round cut stoppage, and he lost a dominant round to Terrance McKinney before McKinney, very predictably, gassed out and tapped out at the six-minute mark.

Borschev won't wilt nearly as quickly, but Sadykov does need to force the issue and wrestle proactively, which he isn't necessarily reliable to do.

I'd wait for a better price on the underdog; otherwise, you can pass on betting on this bout.

Bets

• Viacheslav Borschev (+125, 0.25u) at Caesars

Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Crowdsourced Projections: Mateusz Rebecki (80.4%) 

Roosevelt Roberts, who went 5-3-1 in his previous UFC stint and 1-1 on the past season of The Ultimate Fighter, returns to the roster on short notice in place of Nurullo Aliev as a significant underdog to Mateusz Rebecki.

Roberts is both the substantially taller (5 inches) and longer fighter (seven inches), but he did miss weight on Friday, which could limit his cardio down the stretch of this bout against an opponent who will look to take him down (58% takedown defense) and smash him on the mat.

Roberts isn't out of place in the grappling. He's a brown belt in jiu-jitsu with a decent repertoire of chokes to slap on an over-aggressive grappler. And he can keep the striking extremely competitive if not win the majority of exchanges with his size advantage.

I'd much rather bet on a fighter like Roberts at a significant number – who is a .500 fighter against UFC competition – than a random short-notice debutant from a regional promotion.

Typically, I'd want +480 or better to generate an edge of at least 2% on Roberts relative to my projected number (+410); however, I'm willing to lower that price target to +440 (19.5% implied) to sprinkle Roberts at a 1% edge.

Additionally, consider betting Roberts to win by decision (projected +1038, listed +1200) at a similar edge.

Bets

• Roosevelt Roberts (+470, 0.1u) at WynnBet

Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez

Crowdsourced Projections: Lupita Godinez (67.2%)

While Tabatha Ricci is the superior jiu-jitsu player in this fight, Lupita Godinez is the better boxer and wrestler; "Loopy" should be able to dictate where the fight takes place and win the majority of striking exchanges.

Godinez is the much more technical striker (50% vs. 37% striking accuracy) and has far more ability to sit down on her punches and damage opponents.

In contrast, Ricci patters opponents with less impactful volume.

Both fighters are capable of landing offensive takedowns. However, Godinez seems likelier to maintain control positions. She also showed better fight IQ in her recent win over Elise Reed, taking advantage of a clear grappling edge (completing all five takedown attempts in eight minutes).

In previous fights, Godinez hasn't always capitalized on an apparent mismatch in one area of MMA.

Godinez is the more well-rounded fighter, and her overall skillset is better suited to winning fights at the higher levels of MMA.

I projected Godinez north of -200 in this fight; bet her moneyline up to -190.

Bets

• Lupita Godinez (-165, 0.5u) at BetMGM

Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa

Crowdsourced Projections: Steve Erceg (65.6%)

Steve Erceg impressed as a short-notice underdog in his UFC debut in June, upsetting then-ranked David Dvorak (closed as high as +245) in place of Matt Schnell.

He'll draw Alessandro Costa on short notice – also in place of Schnell – on Saturday in the featured UFC 295 prelim.

The short-notice nature could pose a cardio issue for Costa, who lost his UFC debut in the third round on short notice against Amir Albazi. Costa is also the smaller and less durable fighter.

Based upon that dynamic, I'd look to bet Erceg live after Round 1 – and potentially bet him to win in Round 2 (+700) or Round 3 (+1100) against an opponent who might tire in the later rounds.

Erceg and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+105 in a same-game parlay), or Erceg to win in Round 3 or by Decision (+125), are other viable ways to bet into that win condition.

Bets

• Steve Erceg Wins in Round 2 (+700, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Steve Erceg Wins in Round 3 (+1100, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Steve Erceg Live after Round 1

Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini

Crowdsourced Projections: Pat Sabatini (52.3%)

Saturday's main-card opener could be as exciting or dull as last Saturday's main event. Diego Lopes is an explosive striker and dynamic submission grappler who figures to threaten the finish for 15 minutes against Pat Sabatini.

Lopes is the bigger man (three inches taller, two-inch reach advantage) and the far more powerful puncher in this matchup. Still, he figures to spend a decent amount of time on his back, looking for submission attempts from guard or attempting to scramble up against Sabatini, who has the wrestling advantage in this fight.

If Sabatini can't secure takedowns or hold positions consistently, he may get finished. Lopes is the much more dangerous fighter and a dynamic submission threat from the bottom. He won't accept the position and permit Sabatini to calmly control him for complete rounds without creating action.

Sabatini has a competent top game – and should be able to stay safe on top for extended stretches – but he will need to find Lopes' back and lock in a body triangle to find a more comfortable pace.

Unless Lopes tires out late, I don't see Sabatini finishing him consistently, and his decision odds (projected +173, listed +280) seem off relative to his anticipated win condition.

Lopes winning a decision isn't out of the question by any means; he would need to land the more impactful shot on the feet and avoid taking damage from Sabatini on the mat.

I like this fight to reach a decision nearly 50% of the time – much more frequently than the betting market expects. Bet the distance prop to +115, and sprinkle Sabatini to take that decision.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (+150, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Pat Sabatini wins by Decision (+280, 0.2u) at FanDuel

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Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

Crowdsourced Projections: Benoit St. Denis (65.6%) 

Saturday's lightweight bout between Long Island native Matt Frevola and Frenchman Benoit Saint-Denis ("BSD") is the clear favorite for Fight of the Night honors.

Both fighters like to brawl, and Saint-Denis finally gets an opponent in the 155-pound division who can match his physicality.

Frevola hits as hard as anyone in the 155-pound division, but he loves to brawl, and his chin has failed him in the first minute – twice – in 10 UFC bouts.

Saint-Denis is more of a pressure grappler with insane cardio and an excellent liver kick. BSD has a good left hand but is less likely than most opponents to box up Frevola and chin him early in the fight.

The D in BSD may stand for Defensive Liability (44% striking defense). Benoit is extremely hittable and seemingly a knockout waiting to happen. I see slight value on Frevola by knockout or KO/TKO (projected +315, listed +390 at FanDuel); you can poke that prop for small stakes or consider betting him to win in Round 1 (+700 at FanDuel)

Any brawl pushes things closer to even, but Saint-Denis likely has the wrestling and grappling advantage in this fight – on top of superior cardio – and he'll hunt for Frevola'a back at some point if this bout extends.

As a result, he's the deserving favorite, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. I'd want around +210 or higher to back Frevola straight up; his KO prop encompasses more of his win condition since BSD's grappling upside equates to minute-winning upside too.

Bets

• Matt Frevola wins by KO/TKO (+390, 0.1u) at FanDuel

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Mackenzie Dern vs. Jessica Andrade

Crowdsourced Projections: Mackenzie Dern (63.5%) 

Both strawweights are trending in opposite directions as Jessica Andrade, who owns nearly every promotional record in the women's divisions, enters on a three-fight losing skid. At the same time, Mackenzie Dern put in a career-best effort over 25 minutes in May against Angela Hill.

Andrade has more than twice as many professional fights as Dern and has been in several wars throughout her career. She's also spent a lot of time moving between weight classes, and perhaps cutting to 115 pounds isn't the best move for her anymore at this career stage.

Andrade has looked flat in her recent performances, and she's been finished in five of her past six losses; her durability and willingness to fight through adversity may be deteriorating.

Still, while Dern has elite submission abilities – and should seemingly be able to trouble Andrade on the mat – Dern has never had great wrestling (15% takedown accuracy), and she rarely threatens chokes instead of attacking limbs. Andrade may be able to fend off both her entries and preferred submission setups.

If the fight stays on the feet for extended stretches, Andrade should make the bout look much closer than the betting odds indicate, if not looks like the outright favorite.

While Dern has significantly improved in her striking game, she's still much stiffer technically and less potent than Andrade.

Ultimately, I don't see any betting value on this fight from a moneyline, total, winning method or live angle.

Unquestioningly, I would lean to Andrade at plus money in a close and competitive striking match, but I will pass unless her line floats closer to +185.

Bets

• Jessica Andrade (+200, 0.25u) at Caesars

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall

Crowdsourced Projections: Tom Aspinall (55.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's co-main event and interim heavyweight title bout, check out the full Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Like Saturday's main event, the co-main event is a high-variance fight that will likely end inside the distance. Oddsmakers have set the line at -1450 (93.5% implied) – about as high as you will see outside of last week's main event in Sao Paulo, which closed as high as -10000.

Combined, these heavyweights have seen 12 of their 13 UFC bouts end inside of the first round, and all by the seven-minute mark.

Pavlovich is the bigger man with a six-inch reach advantage. He makes the most of his length, fighting behind a quick jab and long, straight punches. Pavlovich consistently surprises opponents with his speed and the power of his ones and twos.

Still, he hasn't been grappled since his debut loss to Alistar Overeem, and he seems like a much more one-dimensional fighter than the Englishman, who took the bout on short notice.

Aspinall is taller but accustomed to navigating a reach discrepancy against a regular sparring partner, Tyson Fury (85 inches). He's the better kicker in this matchup, the better grappler, and perhaps most importantly, has superior quickness and lateral movement.

While Pavlovich is an imposing physical force for the division, Aspinall's speed and submission grappling stand out relative to other heavyweights. I'd expect him to stay outside the octagon and evade Pavlovich's punches before closing the distance and shooting for takedowns.

It's no guarantee that he can get Pavlovich to the ground; the Russian has undoubtedly improved his takedown defense and defensive grappling since Overeem took him to school back in 2018. Still, once Aspinall gets on top of him, one takedown may be enough to secure submission and win the fight.

However, how either fighter looks beyond the five-minute mark is anyone's guess.

I want to think that Aspinall has the better gas tank based on his fight IQ – and I would recommend that you consider betting him live after Round 1 – but I'd monitor the body language of both combatants if it even gets there.

Pre-fight, I like Aspinall on the moneyline to -115 (projected -122) and would sprinkle his submission prop (projected +304, listed +400 at BetRivers)

Bets

• Tom Aspinall (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Tom Aspinall wins by Submission (+380, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Tom Aspinall Live after Round 1

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Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

Crowdsourced Projections: Alex Pereira (55.4%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and light heavyweight title bout, check out my Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira preview.

I favor Pereira slightly in this matchup (projected 55.4% or -124 implied odds), but I don't see value concerning either side of the moneyline. I would need -115 or better to back the favorite.

I do like the fight to end inside the distance more often (projected 87.8% or -718 implied) than the oddsmakers expect. Use the distance prop as a parlay piece, up to -650; both fighters will hunt for a finish for the duration.

Concerning winning method props, I show slight value on Pereira to win by KO/TKO (projected +112, listed +125 at FanDuel). Bet that prop to +120; Prochazka's defensive recklessness will put him in positions for "Poatan" to close the show.

And I'd instead take most of his win condition at +125 than laying -125 to get his decision and submission equity, too.

Conversely, if you prefer the Prochazka side of the fight, take his moneyline at plus money and consider a tiny sprinkle on his submission prop; the underdog has more ways to win the fight.

Bets

• Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO (+125, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO (+120, 0.25u) at Draftkings

Pick: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO (+125)

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UFC 295 Bets

Moneyline Bets

• John Castaneda (-130, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Jared Gordon (-210, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Viacheslav Borshchev (+125, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Roosevelt Roberts (+470, 0.1u) at WynnBet
• Lupita Godinez (-165, 0.5u) at BetMGM
• Jessica Andrade (+200, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Tom Aspinall (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars

Prop Bets and Totals

• Buzukja/Emmers, Fight Goes to Decision (-192, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Borjas/Van, Fight Goes to Decision (+124, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Castaneda/Kang, Fight Goes to Decision (-154, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Steve Erceg Wins in Round 2 (+700, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Steve Erceg Wins in Round 3 (+1100, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Lopes/Sabatini, Fight Goes to Decision (+150, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Pat Sabatini wins by Decision (+280, 0.2u) at FanDuel
• Matt Frevola wins by KO/TKO (+390, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Tom Aspinall wins by Submission (+380, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO (+125, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO (+120, 0.25u) at Draftkings

Parlays

• N/A

Live Bets

• Dennis Buzukja Live after Round 1
• Joshua Van Live after Round 1
• John Castaneda Live after Round 1
• Jared Gordon Live after Round 1
• Steve Erceg Live after Round 1
• Tom Aspinall Live after Round 1