Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers Odds
The UFC 295 fight card kicks off on Saturday with a featherweight curtain-jerker between Dennis Buzukja and Jamall Emmers.
After losing a short-notice UFC debut, Contender Series vet Buzukja now has a chance to notch a victory against a veteran UFC competitor when he meets Emmers, who's 2-3 in the promotion but has a pair of close split-decision losses among those setbacks.
Here's a look at the odds and my Buzukja vs. Emmers prediction for UFC 295 and the first fight of the night.
Tale of the Tape
| Buzukja | Emmers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 19-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 11:21 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 145.6 pounds | 147 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 74" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/1/1997 | 7/24/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 3.29 | 4.95 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.00 | 1.98 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 40% |
| TD Def | 73% | 90% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Depending upon the book (-250 at BetMGM), I project slight value on Emmers. He's the taller and longer fighter (four-inch reach advantage), has faced a higher level of opponents, and seemingly has the striking and grappling advantage in his matchup against the locally trained Dennis Buzukja.
Still, the otherwise well-rounded Emmers is prone to fight-IQ mistakes and often fails to take the path of least resistance against one-dimensional opponents, and both his athleticism and overall game seem somewhat diminished after returning from an August 2021 knee injury.
Buzukja is the younger fighter – and as I regularly mention, when there's at least a seven-year age gap between UFC combatants, the younger fighter wins 67.3% of the time at average odds of -119, or 54.3% implied. He likely has the cardio advantage and can turn a close fight in his direction with a home crowd behind him.
Buzukja is the more enthusiastic opponent of the two, and he is likely to continue pushing forward as both fighters tire down the stretch. And with Emmers less committed to wrestling since that injury, we could see a close, 15-minute striking fight with slight separation on optics.
Buzukja vs. Emmers Pick
As a rule, I try to avoid betting big favorites when the fight is likely to reach a decision, and I expect this fight to go the full 15 minutes more than 70% of the time (projected -242), more frequently than the oddsmakers.
As a result, I'd rather lay juice on the Over 2.5 Rounds (-240) or bet the Fight to Reach a Decision (-192) than bet on Emmers to win by decision (projected -117, listed +100), only to watch him get robbed in another close fight.
Although I'm not yet ready to commit, I'd also consider betting Buzukja live after Round 1 depending upon the early pace and Emmers' commitment to proactively wrestling. Emmers also missed weight on Friday (147 pounds), which could further deplete his gas tank in the third round.
Additionally, I'd look at the fight to end by split decision, or either fighter to win by split.
The Picks:
- Fight Goes to Decision (-192, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- Dennis Buzukja Live after Round 1
