UFC 295 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis: 2 Bets for Likely Barn Burner (Saturday, November 11)

Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Odds

Matt Frevola is the lone native New Yorker remaining on the UFC 295 main card. Quickly becoming a fan favorite wherever he fights, "Steamrolla" is riding a three-fight winning streak with each of those victories coming via first-round knockout.

His all-action style should align nicely with his UFC 295 opponent, Frenchman Benoit Saint-Denis. "God of War" employs a similar defense-option style of fighting with all four of his UFC wins coming inside two rounds.

The best bet to make on this fight is that it ends up winning Fight of the Night, but unfortunately, that's not a market offered by most sportsbooks.

Instead, let's break down some tape on both fighters to see if we can find an edge with our Frevola vs. Saint-Denis prediction and betting pick for UFC 295.

Tale of the Tape

Saint-Denis made his UFC debut at UFC 267 and dropped a decisive decision to longtime UFC veteran Elizeu Zaelski in Abu Dhabi. That was Saint-Denis' first career loss – and to date, it was his last.

Immediately following that fight, he picked up wins over lower-level competition in Gabriel Miranda and Niklas Stolze.

Saint-Denis' upset victory over the much-hyped Ismael Bonfim as a +250 underdog was the real star turn for BSD.

The southpaw met his orthodox opponent in the center of the cage and immediately traded heavy punches and power kicks with his left leg. He at least partially landed double-digit kicks to the body within the first 30 seconds of the fight, setting the tone for the pace he prefers.

Deciding to plant your feet and trade with Saint-Denis is dangerous for more reasons than one. He'll opportunistically land takedowns when his opponents get too comfortable stepping forward. More of a wrestler than true grappler, he was reversed on occasion by Bonfim but eventually secured a rear-naked choke through brute force more than slick technical jiu-jitsu.

It was a similar story against Thiago Moises in his most recent fight, where Saint-Denis had no problem taking down the more accomplished submission grappler following a couple of minutes of trading leather to start the fight. His brute strength and relentless pace is a massive factor in his success on the ground, and it goes a long way in neutralizing the grappling threats posed by his opponents.

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Not that anyone is expecting Frevola to pose much of a grappling threat. He started his career in the UFC by leaning on his wrestling while landing a total of 12 takedowns in his first five UFC fights.

Following a decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan, in which he was thoroughly outwrestled, and a seven-second knockout at the hands of Terrance McKinney, Frevola decided to take on a new approach. In the following three appearances, he didn't secure a single takedown – but he has picked up six knockdowns.

Fighting out of an orthodox stance, Frevola's happy to claim the center of the octagon and fire heavy kicks and punches from his power side. His fight against southpaw Drew Dober is a reasonable proxy for this one in terms of the standup exchanges. If he's able to win the lead-foot battle the way he did against Dober, more of his right hands and kicks will land than Saint-Denis' will.

However, Frevola is a less voluminous striker than Saint-Denis, and he tries to pick out single heavy shots rather than throw the kitchen sink and hope something will land, as is Saint-Denis' preferred approach. That's a riskier strategy since he tends to be losing fights until he lands the big shot – though all it takes is one to get the job done.

Frevola also may be the rare lightweight capable of matching the physicality of Saint-Denis, thanks to a compact, muscular frame. Outside of the loss against Tsarukyan, we haven't seen Frevola need to escape from his back often. However, the fact that Tsarukyan landed 10 takedowns in a three-round fight speaks to his escapability, even against elite grapplers.

With that said, his ground game is predicated on getting back to his feet, and he doesn't have the submission skills to pose much of a threat against Saint-Denis, especially off of his back.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis Pick

The way these fighters' styles line up lends this one to looking like a fairly typical fight for the favored Saint-Denis. He has a slight height and reach edge on Frevola, which will force the American to step forward to land strikes – presenting plentiful opportunities for takedowns.

With that said, I was extremely encouraged by Frevola's ability to stay safe on the ground against an elite grappler like Tsarukyan. Saint-Denis has fought four Brazilians in five fights, all of whom had a jiu-jitsu background and were a bit too comfortable accepting bottom position and taking damage.

Also unlike Saint-Denis' past opponents, Frevola will be willing to exchange on the feet.

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Which doesn't mean he'll win the exchanges on the feet, but a few big punches from "Steamrolla" can turn anyone into a wrestler. I expect Saint-Denis to eventually win this one thanks to his superior volume and grappling – but maybe not as quickly as the market expects.

Which is why I'm taking the Over 1.5 rounds at +108 on BetRivers for half a unit with similar lines available everywhere. While Frevola's recent fights have all ended in the first round, they've all come against fellow strikers who were willing to test their chins against his power. Saint-Denis has an alternate option available, and every Frevola fight in which either fighter landed a takedown has cleared this mark.

In addition, I'm splitting my other half-unit on Saint-Denis to win parlayed with the Over 1.5 at +215 on DraftKings. That line implies that a longer fight favors Frevola, but I expect the opposite to be true.

The Picks: Frevola vs. Saint-Denis Over 1.5 Rounds (+108 at BetRivers) | Same-Game Parlay: Saint-Denis & Over 1.5 (+215 at DraftKings)