UFC 295 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen: This Fighter Should Win Real Estate (Saturday, November 11)

Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen Odds

New York City's own Jared Gordon is fighting on home turf Saturday at UFC 295 on Saturday. With the loss of Jon Jones in the main event, Gordon is one of just a few remaining hometown fighters scheduled for the pay-per-view event.

It's been quite the interesting past year or so for Gordon.

In late 2022, he very nearly handed Paddy Pimblett his first UFC loss – in a fight widely regarded as one of the biggest robberies in recent memory. Then for his follow-up performance, he ate an accidental headbutt from Bobby Green in the first round that made the bout a no-contest.

Now he's finally healthy and looking to get his career back on track.

Gordon's opponent is 2016 Olympic silver medalist Mark Madsen, who's returning to action following his first career loss just over a year ago.

The 39-year-old Madsen can't afford to drop another fight if he wants a chance to challenge for UFC gold before his career is over, so this is a near must-win for the Dane.

Let's look at the latest odds and my Gordon vs. Madsen prediction and betting angles for UFC 295.

Tale of the Tape

Anytime we talk about Madsen, it becomes necessary to talk about the difference between Greco-Roman and freestyle (or folkstyle) wrestling. Madsen is a practitioner of the former while most other wrestlers in the UFC competed in the latter.

American high school and collegiate wrestling is "folkstyle," which much more closely resembles freestyle at the Olympic/international level.

The primary difference is that in Greco-Roman wrestling, grapplers aren't allowed to initiate takedown attempts by "shooting" at the legs. Rather, the only allowable takedowns are upper-body throws, hip tosses and the like.

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That's a key distinction for MMA since the vast majority of takedowns executed in the cage come via shooting for the legs. That's because it's possible to shoot from your opponent's striking range – rather than needing to close the distance for a clinch.

While forcing a clinch isn't generally that difficult of a task, it's a bit more challenging if your opponent is set on defending it – like for instance if they know you were an Olympic Greco-Roman silver medalist.

Which goes a long way to explain Madsen's struggle in getting fights to the mat at times. He was able to get a quick takedown and finish in his UFC debut, and then he racked up eight more en route to a decision victory in his sophomore outing.

However, it's been tougher sledding since then.

He failed to ground Clay Guida even once in a close decision win for Madsen, with Guida staunchly refusing to fight at close range. More recently, he was taken down twice by Grant Dawson (both on single legs) while failing to secure a single takedown of his own.

Those two fights laid out the blueprint for how to beat Madsen: either by wrestling at his legs or by refusing to engage in the clinch.

Which isn't to say Madsen can't find success on the feet. His faith in his grappling ability allows him to throw heavy strikes, inciting his opponents to grab or clinch him in response. That's further aided by his long reach relative to his height/the division; at 72 inches it's four inches longer than his height. He can strike opponents at range, with them unwilling to close the gap due to the threat of the clinch.

Still, his striking is about what you'd expect from someone who's been training it seriously for only the last five years or so – or at least an elite athlete who's been training seriously only for that length of time.

Conversely, Gordon is a well-rounded fighter who made his amateur MMA debut all the way back in 2007. A pro since 2011, he has 26 professional fights with half of them coming under the UFC banner.

Unlike Madsen he doesn't have a single dominant skill set. He trained and competed in both boxing and wrestling from a young age with a fairly standard mix of the two. He's willing and able to exploit the weaknesses in his opponent's games with a wrestling-heavy approach at times while leaning on his boxing in other fights.

Like Madsen, he has a third-round submission loss to Dawson, and he's been taken down by other solid wrestlers at times.

Of course, those were primarily from freestyle-wrestling-style shots, so it's no guarantee that Madsen can execute a similar pan.

Especially considering Gordon's striking style. He darts in and out of range with quick punch combinations while mixing in the occasional kick to the legs or body.

Crucially for this fight, he keeps his feet moving at all times, rather than planting and exchanging from inside the pocket. I expect the Renzo Gracie team to have prepared a Guida-esque gameplan for Gordon here that keeps him on his bike and away from the clinch.

Gordon vs. Madsen Pick

Gordon is a fairly understandable favorite here against 39-year-old Madsen. A bit of shine has come off the star of Madsen, who looked great against lower-level competition but was lucky to emerge with the win over Guida before dropping the loss to Dawson.

An underrated factor at play here is the size of the PPV cage, which is considerably larger than at the smaller one used at the UFC Apex. This tends to be a bit overblown when discussing standard American wrestlers – since they can score takedowns from range.

However, a fighter such as Madsen has a much tougher task ahead of him; he needs to control a lot of real estate to suck Gordon into danger.

Gordon also has a fairly clear edge on the feet. He's not an elite striker – and he's been chinny at times – but any average-level UFC striker should be better than Madsen on the feet. Gordon is certainly that, with fast hands and solid combinations.

All of which makes me more than comfortable with a straight moneyline play on Gordon, even at -190 odds. I got a better price earlier in the week, but it hasn't moved too much.

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However, I also don't see Gordon finishing this one early. He's not a massive power puncher, and Madsen's chin has held up well thus far in his UFC run – perhaps a benefit of not having a decade-plus of strikes absorbed before making the UFC. A Gordon submission is also relatively unlikely since he won't want to engage in the grappling in the first place.

Initially in this preview, I suggested a bet on Gordon by decision at +110 on DraftKings as a solid way to get a better price while still capturing the likeliest win condition.

However, I suggested then that a better option may come along – and here it is.

With FanDuel's split-round props, we can get -110 odds on Gordon to win in Round 3 or by decision. I could see a late finish from Gordon due to accumulated damage, or a submission over a gassed Madsen making desperate attempts to grapple.

This bet covers either scenario.

Pick: Jared Gordon in Round 3 or by Decision (-110)

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