Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira Odds
UFC light heavyweight gold is on the line on Saturday night at UFC 295 in New York City.
Former middleweight champion Alex Pereira will look to become a two-division champion when he fights former light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka, who vacated his belt last November due to a shoulder injury.
Prochazka, a native of the Czech Republic, enters this vacant title fight on a 13-bout winning streak, including a 3-0 record under the UFC banner and a fifth-round submission win over Pereira's coach, Glover Teixeira.
Pereira earned a decision win in his divisional debut against former champ Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291; he's 5-1 in the UFC and has fought four times since Prochazka last competed in July 2022.
This should be a highly volatile matchup – which can be extremely easy or difficult to analyze, depending on how you slice it.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the finale of the ESPN+ pay-per-view main card (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV, $79.99) and utilize those factors to preview the UFC 295 main event and make my Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira prediction and bet.
Tale of the Tape
| Prochazka | Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-3-1 | 8-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:17 | 11:33 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight | 204.2 pounds | 204 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/14/1992 | 7/7/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.8 | 5.1 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 62% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.40 | 3.70 |
| SS Defense | 40% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 100% |
| TD Def | 68% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Prochazka is the younger man and owns a slight reach advantage in this matchup. However, Pereira is accustomed to working against taller and longer fighters (Israel Adesanya is 6-foot-4 with an 80-inch reach), and Prochazka doesn't necessarily maximize his length like other long fighters in MMA.
Pereira is the superior technical striker in this matchup, though that may not matter.
Prochazka's unorthodox striking style, his willingness to crash the pocket, and his unbelievable pace, pressure and tenacity can present problems for a technician – like Pereira – who is accustomed to picking apart opponents and setting up his left hook against fighters who will generally stand in front of him.
Suppose Prochazka tries to play the range game or engage in a pure distance striking battle with Poatan. In that case, I'd expect the Brazilian to take advantage of Jiri's karate-style stance (with low hands) and land clean punches on a hittable opponent (40% striking defense).
Prochazka is also very open to calf kicks from that stance, and I'd expect Pereira to evade pressure by trying to chop down his opponent's lead leg – to limit his movement – from the opening bell.
Offensively, Prochazka is a relentless striker who chucks volume and uses all eight points of contact (hands, feet, knees, elbows) by flowing from one technique to the next.
However, that dynamic offensive style leaves him open to big counters from opponents. He's a bit of a glass cannon, too, wobbling in each of his UFC bouts, seemingly going unconscious against Dominick Reyes (before recovering to win the fight) and looking out on his feet against Teixeira, who subsequently shot a takedown and allowed Prochazka to recover.
He needs to fight to his typical unorthodox striking style while potentially mixing in a level change to keep Pereira guessing.
Prochazka retains all of the offensive grappling upside in this fight. While I doubt that we see it come into play, Pereira looked sloppy in his recent win over Blachowiczz for two reasons: 1) the takedown threat and, 2) the elevation in Salt Lake City.
While Pereira's grappling has improved in a short time in professional MMA, he's spent nearly a round or more getting controlled by Andreas Michalidis (3:59), Bruno Silva (3:15) Adesanya (6:34), and Blachowicz (7:32).
I also bet Sean Strickland – who never attempted a takedown in his knockout loss – to beat Pereira by submission. If Prochazka engages in a pure striking battle – without any threat of a takedown – he's not lowering Pereira's defensive guard on the feet or maximizing his chances of winning this stylistic matchup. One takedown could be a round in his favor and drain his opponent's gas tank.
Pereira isn't the most durable fighter either; he's been wobbled or knocked out by Adesanya – who is a better kicker than he is a boxer – on multiple occasions across different promotions. And Prochazka carries more power – relative to his weight class – in a heavier division.
Although Prochazka took significant time off for injury, that also allowed his brain and body to heal after his five-round war with Teixeira; Pereira has been much more active, but the accumulation of damage over a short period can add up, particularly as the older fighter.
To me, the durability angle is essentially a coin flip; and both fighters have similar power.
I also have to give Prochazka the cardio advantage in this fight, though perhaps not to the same degree as other analysts might considering Pereira's last bout. I think the elevation in Utah – more so than the added muscle on his frame at 205 – was responsible for Pereira slowing in that matchup.
Still, the five-round format favors Prochazka.
Oddsmakers don't expect Prochazka vs. Pereira to see the judges, setting the fight at -530 (84.1% implied) to end inside the distance. That's heavily juiced but not quite as last week's Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis main event in Sao Paulo, which closed as high as -10000 (99.01% implied) to end by finish and went the full 25 minutes.
Unsurprisingly, the fight is lined close to a coin flip in what is a potential high-variance striker's delight.
Prochazka vs. Pereira Pick
I favor Pereira slightly in this matchup (projected 55.4% or -124 implied odds), but I don't see value concerning either side of the moneyline. I would need -115 or better to back the favorite.
I do like the fight to end inside the distance more often (projected 87.8% or -718 implied) than the oddsmakers expect. Still, I have no interest in playing the Under 1.5 Rounds (+120) with the possibility that Prochazka wrestles immediately to attempt to tire out his opponent. And the Under 2.5 Rounds (-180) may be too juiced for my liking.
Use the distance prop as a parlay piece, up to -650; both fighters will hunt for a finish for the duration.
Concerning winning method props, I show slight value on Pereira to win by KO/TKO (projected +112, listed +125 at FanDuel). Still, intuitively, I don't mind Prochazka by submission (projected +1021, listed +1000 at BetRivers) either.
I will pick – and bet – Pereira by knockout (down to +120); Prochazka's defensive recklessness will put him in positions for "Poatan" to close the show. And I'd instead take most of his win condition at +125 than laying -125 to get his decision and submission equity, too.
I thought about taking a shot on Pereira to win in Rounds 1-2 (+200 at DraftKings), but he carries his power late into fights and will hunt for a knockout, even if he's down on the scorecards.
Conversely, if you prefer the Prochazka side of the fight, take his moneyline at plus money and consider a tiny sprinkle on his submission prop; the underdog has more ways to win the fight.
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