Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas Odds
After an initial meeting didn't materialize under the Contender Series banner, Joshua Van and Kevin Borjas now meet on the early UFC 295 preliminary card on Saturday.
Both featherweights are coming off victories – Van in a short-notice UFC debut and Borjas in a successful Contender Series appearance.
Which youngster will keep the good time rolling on the UFC 295 early preliminary card?
Here's my UFC 295 prediction for Van vs. Burjas.
Tale of the Tape
| Van | Borjas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'5" |
| Weight | 125.8 pounds | 125.8 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/10/2001 | 12/6/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.9 | 2.9 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 80% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
A then-21-year-old Van impressed as a short-notice underdog in his UFC debut in June, upsetting the much more experienced Zhalgas Zhumagulov. In his sophomore outing, he'll draw Borjas, who earned a contract on Contender Series in August.
Both flyweights prefer to strike, but Borjas has a three-inch reach advantage, which could prove crucial in the exchanges.
Van is the better grappler and can likely swing close striking rounds by landing takedowns and generating control time.
Both fighters have good cardio and durability. Even though we could see high-volume striking in this matchup, the likeliest path to a finish is probably Van via submission; both fighters have one professional loss, each via rear-naked choke (Borjas also has a pair of amateur losses by submission).
If Borjas can keep the fight standing, he can pull the upset. He also typically starts faster than Van, who prefers to make his reads and build his pace as the fight drags on.
Van vs. Borjas Pick
I like this fight to go longer and project the bout to reach a decision 53% of the time, slightly below the divisional average (54.2%). Bet that prop to -108, or play the Over 2.5 Rounds to -125.
Alternatively, or in addition, I like Van to win by decision (projected +169, listed +260). However, I do prefer the total.
Lastly, fire on Van if he loses Round 1.
The Pick:
- Fight Goes to Decision (+124, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- Joshua Van Live after Round 1
