Mackenzie Dern vs. Jessica Andrade Odds
Even though this UFC 295 strawweight affair could serve as a five-round headliner, Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern will help bolster Saturday's pay-per-view main card in New York City.
Andrade, who is the former champion of this 115-pound division, is currently riding a rough three-fight skid heading into this contest.
In Andrade's defense, all of the losses came against top-shelf competition, and two of the outings were taken on short notice.
Dern, on the other hand, specifically asked to be matched up against a former champ at Madison Square Garden – and she'll be getting just that.
Let's look at the UFC 295 odds and my Dern vs. Andrade prediction and best bet.
Tale of the Tape
| Dern | Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-12 | 13-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:13 | 13:30 |
| Height | 5'1" | 5'4" |
| Weight | 115.6 pounds | 116 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 62" | 63" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/25/1991 | 3/24/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.7 | 3.4 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.34 | 4.09 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.54 | 0.81 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 15% |
| TD Def | 70% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 1.5 |
Despite Dern carrying a couple of inches on Andrade in the dimensions department, both women are solid athletes for the weight class.
Embodying the spirit of a female John Lineker, Andrade has traditionally been an aggressive pressure fighter who is not afraid to slip and rip in the head and body.
Although the latter will likely serve her well opposite a fighter who has shown pace management issues, Andrade will still need to mind her defense and respect the power coming back at her.
Dern may be known for her ground game, but the 30-year-old fighter carries some solid pop in her shots standing.
Working under well-respected striking coach Jason Parillo, Dern has been steadily shoring up her holes on the feet since she entered the UFC.
However, I noticed that Parillo does not appear to be working with Dern for this camp, which both concerns me and makes me wonder if we'll see more grappling this time around.
Dern has a head-and-arm throw that she seems to like, but otherwise has not displayed any meaningful upgrades to her wrestling since switching over to MMA.
In fact, whenever Dern does hit her favored hip toss, her aggression and excitement seem to get the better of her given that she typically ends up on bottom (even if she stunned her opponent first).
Luckily for Dern, Andrade is not beyond being submitted, especially in transition.
Andrade may also own a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but not all black belts are created equal.
Nevertheless, I still give a decent wrestling edge to Andrade – which means that Dern will need to get extra aggressive to create her winning conditions.
Dern vs. Andrade Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the fan favorite, listing Dern -210 and Andrade +170 as of this writing on Thursday.
Although I can understand why Dern is coming in as the favorite, she's not exactly the kind of fighter you can trust at chalky odds.
For example, Dern's striking has quietly made some improvements during her UFC tenure, but she still tends to get over-excited and crowd her work after hurting opposition – often ending up on the bottom due to her own propensity to play off her back.
MMA judges have been a bit better about rewarding offense from bottom, but both Dern and her team have acknowledged the dangers of being on their back opposite Andrade's ground-and-pound.
Don't get me wrong: The ground is the last place Andrade wants to be in this fight. I just suspect that Dern's propensity to both fight from negative positions and give back exposure on her head-and-arm attempts will allow Andrade ample opportunities to punish her with fight-changing strikes or slams.
Couple Dern's unreliable wrestling with her porous striking defense, and I can't help but take a shot on the UFC's women's wins leader in Andrade to right her ship as an underdog in this spot.
The Pick: Jessica Andrade (+170 at Caesars)
