Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Odds
The UFC 295 pay-per-view co-headliner in New York City features an impromptu interim heavyweight title fight between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall.
Pavlovich, who was initially slotted as a backup fighter for the originally scheduled title fight between champ Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, will now meet Aspinall on roughly three weeks' notice.
Considering that Asinpall is already a top-five fighter in the division, I'm willing the bet that both men have been on each other's radar for some time.
And though this matchup may not carry as much name value as Jones-Miocic, they heavyweights are fresher faces whom pundits like myself have pegged as the next big things in this division.
Here are the latest UFC 295 odds and my Pavlovich vs. Aspinal prediction and betting pick for the interim title fight.
Tale of the Tape
| Pavlovich | Aspinall | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-1 | 13-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:23 | 2:19 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'5" |
| Weight | 259.8 pounds | 261.6 pounds |
| Reach | 84 inches | 78 inches |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/13/1992 | 4/11/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 8.7 | 7.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 66% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 65% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 100% |
| TD Def | 75% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.9 |
Despite Pavlovich and Aspinall coming from grappling bases, both men prefer to sort things out on the feet.
Pavlovich, who essentially looks like a 1950s refrigerator with MMA gloves attached to it, is one of the most devastating punchers that the division has to offer.
Seldom throwing himself too far out of position, Pavlovich does a decent job of staying on balance and utilizing solid boxing fundamentals to deliver big power.
Whether he's firing off cross-hook combinations or force-feeding uppercuts to his foes along the fence, Pavlovich appears to have a knack for pulling out his opponent's offense and countering in the heat of battle.
I'll be curious to see if Pavlovich has added any kicks to his arsenal since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida, but I wouldn't bank on seeing too many of those attacks given the level-changing threats of Aspinall.
Although the Englishman comes from a jiu-jitsu background, Aspinall looks to be more than comfortable burying his head into his opponent's chest and driving through on a double-leg takedown.
On the mat, Aspinall is a fast finisher who always looks to pass and destroy (as opposed to playing with his food).
And if Pavlovich's Greco-Roman wrestling skills can keep this fight standing, then Aspinall has some savvy striking he can lean on.
Carry a bit of boxing experience in his back pocket, Aspinall appears to have excellent eyes and instincts in the pocket.
From pulling out his opponent's punches to returning hard hooks on a hair trigger, Aspinall's speed really helps his skills shine through in this weight class.
Aspinall also wields some underrated kicks in his arsenal that appear to be back on the menu after the successful knee surgery that the Team Kaobon product underwent last year.
Pavlovich vs. Aspinall Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are ever so slightly favoring the English fighter, listing Aspinall -112 and Pavlovich -108 as of this writing.
Despite my official pick and play, I don't blame anyone who's able and willing to take a stab on a fighter like Pavlovich at plus money.
Aside from the extra volatile nature of heavyweight MMA, Pavlovich is a fairly reliable fighter who has the prerequisite power and durability to do well in this division.
The potential problem, however, is that we've still yet to see solid sample sizes of Pavlovich having to pass stiff grappling tests since his telling loss to Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut.
Sure, the Russian fighter is fresh off of a win over Curtis Blaydes. But Blaydes (who has sadly been trending away from his wrestling) didn't even bother to try to shoot a takedown until he was half-conscious from trading with Pavlovich for multiple minutes first.
Considering that Aspinall is one of the only other fighters who can wrestle in this weight class, I can't help but side with him here to get it done inside the distance.
I don't blame anyone for just taking Aspinall's moneyline if you can find it near even money, but I suspect that his price tag could go up on fight day given England fans' history of backing their fighters heavily at the betting window.
The Pick: Tom Aspinall by stoppage (-105 at DraftKings)
